The FOMC minutes from July 8 may be more important than the June rate decision itself.

Because the meeting on June 17 was already clear: the federal funds rate target range was maintained at 3.50%–3.75%, and the vote was 12–0. Moreover, after Warsh took office, forward guidance was weakened, and the importance of the meeting minutes was rapidly amplified.
The market is now eager to know how the Fed is reordering risk weights internally.
The meeting minutes will reveal the answer, that is, the reason the Fed kept rates unchanged is:
- The Fed believes the current rate is already high enough
- The Fed wants to wait for more data before deciding the next step
I personally lean towards the latter. The tail risk of rate hikes remains, and Warsh still intends to hold the rate hike weapon.
The oil price risk has eased, and the next step is to truly solve the internal economic problems of the United States.