Trading Strategy: Buy on short-term gains, sell on long-term losses when bullish news is exhausted

Market bets on "rate cuts" are doomed to be "disappointed." We judge that the Fed will neither raise nor cut rates in 2026, with rates remaining unchanged throughout the year! The latest non-farm payrolls added only 57k, far below expectations, but there hasn't been several consecutive months of sharp negative growth or a rapid surge in unemployment. Powell won't cut rates based solely on a weak single-month employment report; consecutive data confirming a sustained cooling of the labor market is needed. Non-farm payrolls: Year-over-year hourly wages rose 3.5%, slightly up, with month-over-month growth flat at 0.3%. Year-over-year hourly wage growth above 3.2% makes it hard for inflation to return to 2%. Wages are the foundation of service-sector inflation, which won't come down in the short term. So rate cuts are not supported either!
Logically, "rate cuts are off the table," the US-Iran negotiations have effectively collapsed, and direct conflict between Israel and Iran is now on the agenda. Technically, "there is no volume in the rebound," so we characterize this rally as a "data-driven technical rebound," not a reversal. The Fed won't cut rates in the second half of the year, tapering is still ongoing, and liquidity has not improved!