White Line | Decoding SpaceX IPO: What Supports a Trillion-Dollar Valuation?

Source | BaiXian WhiteLine

Compiled by | Wu Says Blockchain

Finding Direction Before Change Arrives

《BaiXian WhiteLine》 is produced by the Wu Says team. Moving from Crypto to the broader capital markets, it focuses on trend shifts in the AI era.

In this episode, BaiXian host Minta wants to break down a topic in the capital market that is hard to avoid lately: the SpaceX IPO.

When it comes to SpaceX, many people’s first reaction may be Mars, rockets, Musk, and a world beyond the stars. But what the capital market truly cares about is: how does this company make money, and what justifies such a high valuation?

This episode starts from SpaceX’s three-layer business structure: Space is the moat of low-cost orbit insertion, Starlink is the most real cash-flow and profit engine right now, and AI is the variable with the greatest future valuation upside—but also the highest risk. The program also discusses the scale of the SpaceX IPO, the float, the lock-up period, index inclusion expectations, and how it might affect tech growth, AI, space-related themes, and related “shadow” stocks.

What the SpaceX IPO is selling may not be this year’s profits, but a ticket to future infrastructure.

Please note that this article is published before the SpaceX IPO, so some information may be lagging.

I. The Eve of the SpaceX IPO: Rockets Are Tools; Starlink and AI Are the Valuation Keys

SpaceX is not simply a rocket company. It is a three-tier platform made up of Space, Starlink, and AI: Space handles low-cost orbit insertion, Starlink provides stable cash flow, and AI provides the greatest valuation flexibility. What the market really cares about is whether these three layers can form a closed loop.

1. Space: Value Lies in Low-Cost Orbit Insertion

In the short term, the Space business is not the profit core. The key is to continuously drive down the cost of orbit insertion.

Through material and airframe reuse, SpaceX has reduced the launch cost of Falcon 9 to $2,600 per kilogram, Falcon Heavy to $1,400, and its Starship target is below $100.

Therefore, the significance of Space is not in current profits, but in building an infrastructure moat that is difficult to replicate.

2. Starlink: The Most Stable Cash Flow Currently

Starlink is SpaceX’s most certain current source of profit.

It solves the network demand that ground base stations cannot cover. At its core, it sells global coverage capability. Its advantages include leading satellite scale, lower deployment costs, and the fact that user growth can further strengthen network effects.

So, Starlink is not only a cash cow—it is also the most stable value support right now.

3. AI: Sell Compute Power in the Short Term, Build a Platform in the Long Term

In the short term, the AI business generates cash flow by renting out compute power. In the long term, its goal is to upgrade into a platform that covers compute power, models, data, and applications.

The core is not the renting of GPUs itself, but whether a flywheel can be formed: data centers generate revenue, revenue continues to expand compute power and reduce costs, and then in turn feeds back into models and applications.

Therefore, AI is the layer of SpaceX with the most room for imagination—and also the highest risk.

Overall, SpaceX’s valuation depends on three points: whether it can continue to drive down orbit insertion costs, whether it can expand Starlink’s cash flow and network effects, and whether it can upgrade AI from compute leasing to platform business.

In one sentence: rockets are just tools; Starlink is the base; AI determines the ceiling.

II. How the SpaceX IPO Is Different: Massive Scale, Low Float—Index in the Short Term, Unlocking in the Medium Term

The biggest difference between this SpaceX IPO and a typical IPO lies in the unprecedented scale, extremely low initial float, and very clear capital catalysts alongside unlocking pressure.

This round of financing is not mainly about existing shareholders cashing out. Instead, it will continue to invest in AI compute power, launch infrastructure, and satellite constellation construction—essentially financing subsequent capital expenditures.

Public shareholders do not have real control. The public holds Class A shares, while Musk and internal shareholders hold Class B shares, which have higher voting rights.

The initial float is small. At IPO, the shares publicly available for trading are about 4.2%. Even if all additional allocations are completed, the float ratio will still be under 5%. This means that in the early stage after listing, it is easy to see a scramble for shares due to chip scarcity.

In the short term, the biggest catalyst comes from index inclusion. Nasdaq has adjusted rules for mega IPOs, giving SpaceX the opportunity to be included in the Nasdaq 100 relatively quickly after listing, thereby gaining an early passive fund buying bid. By contrast, inclusion in the S&P 500 will be slower, so the short-term catalyst mainly comes from the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 is more of a later incremental addition.

But in the medium term, what truly matters is unlocking pressure. Even though SpaceX’s initial float is small, after listing—both one month later and after the stock price rises—more shares will gradually unlock. In other words, early on the price is supported by low float; later it will have to face pressure from newly added shares and sales from early shareholders.

Therefore, the key after SpaceX lists is not whether the pricing can hold. It is whether the secondary market has enough capital to absorb the sell-off after the unlocking. It may not drain all liquidity from U.S. equities, but it is highly likely to create a capital “siphon” effect on adjacent sectors such as AI, tech growth, and space-themed concepts.

III. How to Look at the Space Sector: After the SpaceX Listing, First Repricing, Then Differentiation

The impact of the SpaceX IPO on the space sector is very likely to follow a pattern of first repricing, then differentiation.

Before SpaceX was listed, the space sector had already traded through a round of expectations. Targets such as RKLB and ASTS benefited from sentiment spillovers and valuation spillovers. But after SpaceX is actually listed, with the most direct trading target in hand, funds will no longer pursue “SpaceX shadow stocks” the way they did before.

This means that companies that previously relied on a SpaceX premium-driven rise will later have to return to their own fundamentals. Without support from real orders, technological progress, and a closed business loop, it is difficult for those names to keep their valuations relying on themes alone.

For example, with RKLB, its subsequent stock performance will depend more on its own progress—such as the Neutron rocket—rather than continuing to rely on liquidity spillovers brought by SpaceX.

In summary, SpaceX is not a simple rocket company. It is a three-layer platform: Space provides the moat, Starlink provides cash flow, and AI provides the greatest valuation flexibility. After the IPO, the short-term trade is about chip scarcity; the medium-term trade is about unlocking pressure; and the long-term trade is whether the Starlink and AI businesses can deliver.

So, what the SpaceX IPO is selling is not current profits, but the pricing power over future infrastructure.