Qiudi Data — Cape Verde’s actual chances of winning are seriously underestimated

Brothers, the data analysis from Qiudi shows a very interesting phenomenon: Cape Verde’s actual probability of winning may be seriously underestimated.

The betting market opened with Argentina giving 2 goals, with a draw deviation of +12% and a negative deviation of -11%. What does this indicate? It indicates that the probability of Cape Verde not losing by more than 2 goals is higher than the price set by the market. In other words, Argentina’s difficulty in achieving a clean win by 3 goals or more is greater than you might think.

The bookmakers’ initial line had Argentina giving 2.5 goals, but it has now been reduced to Argentina giving 2 goals. When the line drops by half a goal, it shows that funds are backing Cape Verde. This doesn’t mean Cape Verde will win—it means Cape Verde won’t lose too badly.

Why is this the case? Because Cape Verde’s defensive resilience has been repeatedly proven in the group stage. Spain and Uruguay couldn’t break through their ironclad setup. Although Argentina has stronger attacking power, winning by 3 goals or more would indeed be far from easy.

If you’re a conservative player, Argentina’s win is the base bet. But if you want to chase higher odds, Cape Verde +2 (a net loss of no more than 2 goals) or “total goals under 2.5” are options worth paying attention to. The smart money in the market is doing exactly this.

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