Wall Street Breakfast FM-Radio | July 4, 2026

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Market Overview

AI concerns ease, US stock markets closed, Nasdaq 100 futures rebound over 1%; tech stocks rally, pushing the pan-European index to new highs for two consecutive days, recording the best weekly performance in over a month, rising for four consecutive weeks; European tech sector closes up over 1%, chip stocks ASML up 3.6%, Aixtron up 6%; defense stocks perform strongly throughout the week, industrial sector up 5.6% for the week.

The US dollar index briefly approached the two-week low set after the US nonfarm payrolls report, then erased losses and stabilized; the yen hit a two-week high during the session before turning lower, falling below 161 against the dollar; offshore yuan broke above 6.79 during the session, hitting a one-week high; cryptocurrencies continued to rise, with Bitcoin briefly breaking above $62k, up over 2% from the day’s low, and Ethereum up over 10% for the week.

Brent crude saw a modest rebound for two consecutive days, falling for four consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak of weekly declines in nearly two years. Spot gold rose nearly 2% during the session to a more than one-week high, rebounding over 2% for the week, reversing four consecutive weeks of declines. Middle East risk premium fades, LME aluminum under pressure, down nearly 3% for the week, LME tin up over 4% for the week.

During the Asian session, China’s three major stock indices closed slightly higher, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.28%, the robotics supply chain saw a surge in limit-up stocks, and gold stocks performed strongly.

Highlights

> China
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> The State Council issued the "Beautiful China Construction 15th Five-Year Plan," clarifying the goal of comprehensive improvement of the ecological environment by 2030.
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> Three departments: Starting next year, the policy of halving the vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the policy of exempting new energy vehicles such as plug-in hybrids and extended-range electric vehicles from the vehicle and vessel tax will be canceled.
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> The NDRC announced that domestic refined oil product prices will be lowered from Saturday, with the largest reduction this year and the first "three consecutive declines" this year.
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> China's June RatingDog Services PMI slightly fell to 54.1, still near a three-year high, with new business exports hitting a new high for the year.
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> Going head-to-head with Anthropic? Media reports say Alibaba will fully ban Claude Code internally.
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> After Unitree Technology’s STAR Market IPO registration became effective, the A-share robotics sector surged, with over 40 stocks hitting the daily limit.
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> Storage giant Longsys’s first-half net profit exploded, with a pre-increase of 62,204% to 74,394%.
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> Overseas
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> Iran held the funeral of the late Supreme Leader; He Wei attended on behalf of China, and a Saudi delegation unexpectedly appeared. Iran again mentioned the "joint management" of the Strait of Hormuz with Oman.
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> Trump commented on AI regulation: "We need guardrails, but the fewer the better."
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> Eurozone economy "stops falling" in June: Composite PMI returns to 50, German data unexpectedly saves the day.
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> Russian presidential press secretary: Putin announces the "complete liberation" of Luhansk by Russian forces.
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> Media survey: OPEC June production surged by 2.34 million barrels per day, crude oil market returns to "supply surplus" trading.
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> Samsung talks cooperation, SK Hynix expands production, Kioxia NAND samples shipped; Japanese and Korean stock markets respond to computing power surplus panic with a V-shaped rebound.

Market Close

European and US stock markets: US markets closed. Europe's STOXX 600 index rose 0.68% to 652.77 points, accumulating a weekly gain of 2.66%.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.37% at 4,043.64 points. Shenzhen Component Index closed up 0.64% at 15,597.51 points. ChiNext Index closed up 0.07% at 4,019.93 points.

Bonds: US Treasury markets closed.

Commodities: Brent crude for September delivery closed up 0.45% at $72.12 per barrel, down 0.66% for the week. Spot gold was at $4,176.94 per ounce by Friday close, up over 1.3% on the day, accumulating a weekly gain of nearly 2.2%. LME aluminum closed down $1 at $3,090 per ton, down 2.83% for the week. LME tin closed up 3.27% at $52,628 per ton, up 4.1% for the week.

Details of Highlights

Global Heavyweights

China

The State Council issued the "Beautiful China Construction 15th Five-Year Plan," clarifying the goal of comprehensive improvement of the ecological environment by 2030. The plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in the construction of a beautiful China. Green production and lifestyle will be basically formed, carbon peak targets will be achieved on schedule, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decrease, the comprehensive treatment capacity and level of solid waste will be significantly improved, urban and rural living environments will be significantly improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of the ecosystem will continue to improve, the level of nuclear and radiation safety will continue to improve, and national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed.

Three departments adjust preferential policies for vehicle and vessel tax on energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. The Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued an announcement. The announcement clarifies that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving the vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the policy of exempting pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles from vehicle and vessel tax will be canceled.

The NDRC announced that domestic refined oil product prices will be lowered from Saturday, with the largest reduction this year and the first "three consecutive declines" this year. From 24:00 on July 3, domestic gasoline and diesel (standard product) prices per ton will be reduced by 950 yuan and 915 yuan, respectively. This is the thirteenth adjustment this year. For car owners, filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline after the adjustment will save 37.5 yuan. Comments suggest that due to factors such as the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil has been generally weak, with average prices significantly lower than the previous cycle.

China's June RatingDog Services PMI at 54.1, new business exports hit a new high for the year. China's RatingDog June Services PMI was 54.1, slightly down from the May high but still at the third highest level in nearly three years. New business export growth hit a new high for the year, sales prices strongly returned to expansion after two months of silence, with the strongest growth in over a year; employment expanded for two consecutive months, with the fastest growth in nearly two years, indicating that the momentum of service sector recovery is accelerating.

Going head-to-head with Anthropic? Media reports say Alibaba will fully ban Claude Code internally. Sources say Alibaba will fully ban Claude Code internally, identifying it as having backdoor risks, effective July 10. From Anthropic’s allegations of distillation attacks, to Alibaba suing the US Department of Defense, to the exposure of the Claude Code backdoor incident, the conflict is becoming more complex.

What does DeepSeek’s peak-hour price hike mean? Goldman Sachs: Competition in China’s large model space is returning to rationality. Competition in China’s large model industry is shifting from price wars to efficiency-driven. DeepSeek has implemented a peak-hour API price hike to twice the off-peak price since mid-July. Goldman Sachs believes this reflects strong demand and tightening computing power, driving pricing back to rationality. The industry’s focus is shifting to cost control, computing power efficiency, and commercialization capabilities. Firms with streamlined organizations and rapid iteration will have an advantage, and aggressive price competition may be nearing its end.

Robotics sector surges! Unitree Technology’s STAR Market IPO registration becomes effective. On July 2, the CSRC disclosed approval of Unitree Technology Co., Ltd.’s initial public offering registration. Driven by this, the A-share robotics sector saw a significant afternoon rally. Over 40 stocks, including Harmonic Drive, Tuopu Group, Joyson Electronics, Guangyang Shares, and Fengguang Precision, hit the daily limit, while dozens of stocks such as Wanda Bearing, Haozhi Electromechanical, Fengli Intelligence, and OBI Zhongguang rose over 10%.

Storage giant Longsys’s first-half net profit exploded, with a pre-increase of 62,204% to 74,394%. Longsys’s Q2 net profit is expected to be between 62k and 5.34B yuan, with Q1 net profit at 7.14B yuan. Based on this, Q2 net profit is expected to change sequentially by 38% to 84%.

Overseas

Iran held the funeral of the late Supreme Leader; He Wei attended on behalf of China, and a Saudi delegation unexpectedly appeared. Iran again mentioned "joint management" of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported that the Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister led a delegation "unexpectedly" appearing at the funeral ceremony, with Saudi Arabia not on the invited delegation list. Iran’s President and Parliament Speaker met with He Wei respectively. Iran expressed willingness to continue easing tensions through political and diplomatic channels and properly handle the Strait of Hormuz issue in accordance with international law. The Iranian Parliament Speaker stated that according to the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, the Strait should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, and Iran is consulting with Persian Gulf littoral states. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office denied US media reports of planning to assassinate Iranian negotiators.

Trump commented on AI regulation: "We need guardrails, but the fewer the better." Trump set the tone for AI regulation. This stance reflects deep internal contradictions within the administration—export controls on Anthropic’s models tightened and loosened abruptly, leaving Silicon Valley unsettled; meanwhile, OpenAI is reportedly negotiating with the government over selling a 5% stake, with Anthropic, Google, and Meta potentially included. If the government equity plan materializes, it will profoundly reshape the IPO landscape and regulatory environment of the AI industry.

Eurozone economy "stops falling" in June: Composite PMI returns to 50, German data unexpectedly saves the day. The Eurozone June composite PMI final reading rose to 50.0, higher than the preliminary 49.5, ending two consecutive months of contraction. Germany’s June composite PMI rose to 49.5, with the services PMI revised up significantly to 48.6, showing a notable narrowing of contraction. In June, service sector cost pressures in the Eurozone cooled at the second fastest pace in history, weakening expectations for further rate hikes. However, new orders remain weak, demand momentum insufficient, and internal divisions within the European Central Bank are widening, with the market expecting a shift to a wait-and-see stance.

Russian presidential press secretary: Putin announces the "complete liberation" of Luhansk by Russian forces. Russian forces also made significant progress in Donetsk, fully capturing the city of Konstantinovka.

Media survey: OPEC June production surged by 2.34 million barrels per day, crude oil market returns to "supply surplus" trading. With the restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC’s June production increased by 2.34 million barrels per day to 18.75 million barrels per day, with the increase primarily coming from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Production remains below pre-war levels. Weak oil consumption combined with rising supply has led to supply surpluses in some markets. Brent crude futures traded near $72 per barrel on Friday, erasing wartime gains.

Samsung talks cooperation, SK Hynix expands production, Kioxia NAND samples shipped; Japanese and Korean stock markets respond to computing power surplus panic with a V-shaped rebound. South Korean stocks staged a "deep V" reversal: the KOSPI index fell sharply over 3% in early trading before mounting a strong counterattack, surging over 5% triggering programmatic buy-side circuit breakers, ultimately closing up 5.8%. The rebound was driven by multiple positive factors in the AI supply chain: Anthropic and Samsung discuss custom chip collaboration, Korean companies increase semiconductor investment, Samsung plans to raise DRAM prices, and Kioxia launches a new generation of NAND chips. Despite improved sentiment, the market’s cautious attitude toward AI investment returns has not fundamentally reversed.

The AI Token Expenditure Index fell nearly 20%, indicating a possible cooling in users' marginal willingness to pay. The global AI key indicator, the LLM Token Expenditure Index, peaked in May and has since fallen nearly 20%. This index is essentially a composite result of the interaction between price and usage volume. As a proxy variable for "marginal willingness to pay," its weakening has sparked market divergence: optimists attribute it to demand restructuring driven by over 90% declines in token prices; pessimists warn that the 46% growth gap between AI investment and sales exceeds that of the internet bubble era, with willingness to pay possibly nearing its upper limit.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella: The moat in the AI era is not in the model, but in the company's unique learning loop. Microsoft CEO Nadella warns: Companies that merely act as "consumers" of general large models will face value destruction. The real moat lies in embedding models into proprietary data and reinforcement learning environments to create exclusive "climbing machines." From quantum computing achieving practical use by 2030, to free trillion-parameter models on-device, to Scout autonomous intelligent agents, a technological revolution that completely rewrites business rules has quietly begun.

Tesla VP: Within five years, autonomous driving and humanoid robots will be "fully integrated into daily life." Lars Moravy, Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering, stated that in the next five years, autonomous driving-focused Robotaxi and Cybercab, as well as the humanoid robot Optimus, will be fully integrated into life, building a "real-world AI" system. Currently, the production line for the autonomous driving model Cybercab has started operations; the first production line for the humanoid robot Optimus is being installed, replicating automotive manufacturing experience.

Research Picks

US stocks experienced the largest weekly capital outflow in nearly four months. Bank of America's Hartnett: "Sell signal" still flashing. Bank of America said US stock funds saw outflows of $17.2 billion in a single week, the highest since March 2026. However, the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.5, with the "sell signal" triggered by extreme bullishness persisting for six weeks. Chip stocks experienced severe volatility, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 11% in two days. Funds are accelerating their flow into fixed income assets, tech funds, and Japanese stocks, while gold and cryptocurrencies continue to bleed.

SemiAnalysis refutes the "computing power surplus" theory: Meta's computing power expansion far exceeds imagination, and next year's capital expenditure will be "astonishingly high." Meta has contracted over 5 GW of data center capacity in the first half of this year, and next year's capital expenditure is expected to be "astonishingly high." SemiAnalysis believes market concerns about "computing power surplus" are misjudged. More critically, Meta holds four key monetization cards: AI models, advertising expansion, API services, and high-premium short-term leasing. Every GW of computing power has high-value outlets, making Meta's computing power investments flexible for both offense and defense.

Both OpenAI and Anthropic are "developing their own chips." Besides cost, are there other reasons? The AI large model arms race is quietly escalating—from algorithmic competition to hardware control. Anthropic is discussing custom chip collaboration with Samsung, following OpenAI's path to hardware autonomy. Behind developing their own chips is not just reducing Nvidia procurement costs, but also achieving deep synergy between model architecture and underlying silicon, enabling cross-layer breakthroughs in inference efficiency, energy consumption, and unit economics.

The second half of the AI bull market: Downstream commercialization may be more important than Capex. The US AI industry faces the contradiction of lagging application commercialization: RPO for application vendors like Salesforce continues to decline, Amazon’s marginal ROI has fallen below breakeven, and Microsoft’s stock price has broken below the 888-day moving average. Zheshang Securities points out that current high prosperity relies on aggressive capital expenditure by midstream cloud vendors, but declining marginal returns have revealed hidden dangers. Future tracking priorities should be: downstream commercialization data > cloud vendor Capex guidance > US Treasury yield fluctuations.

How much can AI earn? It depends on how much it can take from the human wage pool. How much AI can earn does not depend on the size of the software market, but on how much it can take from the human wage pool. A report from China Gold Securities estimates that $1.45 trillion in US salaries are already exposed to AI impact, while leading company Anthropic’s annual revenue is only $47 billion, with a penetration rate of just 3.2%. The space is huge, but the cost is that wages for high-paying positions are being repriced by AI.

JPMorgan warns: If the Fed raises rates early, gold prices may fall back below $4,000 and even test $3,500-$3,600. A JPMorgan report points out that gold pricing has returned to being sensitive to interest rate-sensitive ETF fund flows, with a significant reestablishment of the negative correlation between gold prices and real yields. Since the Fed’s hawkish signal at the end of February, gold prices have already corrected over 20%. The bank lowered its Q3 and Q4 gold price forecasts to $4,300 and $4,500 per ounce, respectively, and warned that if summer data runs hot, strengthening rate hike expectations, should gold prices break below $4,000, technicals could further dip into the $3,500-$3,600 range.

World Cup

A 14-gram chip saves Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo. In the 2026 World Cup round of 16, VAR used the 500Hz chip (connected ball technology) embedded in the Adidas Trionda ball to detect a micro-contact peak from Croatian player Matanovic’s head, ruling a disallowed equalizer goal for offside, allowing Portugal to come from behind 2-1 to advance.

Domestic Macro

The CSRC solicits opinions on refinancing reform, proposing to introduce shelf registration and increase the quota for small and fast financing. The China Securities Regulatory Commission proposes to amend the refinancing rules for listed companies and is now seeking public opinions. Main amendments include: establishing a system for shelf registration of private placements; optimizing small and fast financing, with the upper limit raised to between 300 million and 1 billion yuan; implementing a unified market-price offering pricing mechanism; simplifying conditions for private placements to controlling shareholders and extending the lock-up period to 36 months; strengthening convertible bond regulation; and clarifying that raised funds should be invested in main business.

Domestic Companies

DeepSeek’s new technology ported to Apple chips, Mac local large models accelerated by 60%. Just one week after DeepSeek open-sourced DSpark, engineer Abdur Rahim launched the first native version for Apple chips, mlx-dspark. On the M4 Pro, this version uses speculative decoding and reconstruction of the MLX framework to successfully increase the generation speed of Gemma-4 and Qwen3 models by 1.6 times and 1.4 times, respectively.

Market misjudgment? Reports: TSMC’s first-generation CoPoS may not use glass substrates, and never considered using glass interposers. According to reports, the first-generation CoPoS product is likely not to use glass substrates. This fundamentally differs from the widely circulated narrative in the market that "glass substrates are the core of CoPoS," which has triggered significant speculative activity. Additionally, TSMC has never considered glass interposers.

Guotai Haitong "kicks off" financial stocks’ first-half performance forecast: Non-recurring net profit increased over 164%, hitting a record high! Revenue from wealth management, investment banking, institutional and trading, investment management, and other businesses saw significant year-on-year growth.

Overseas Macro

Goldman Sachs hedge fund head’s "semi-annual summary": This has only happened once before. The S&P 500 recorded about a 10% return in the first half. If it holds 7,530 points by year-end, it would mark only the second time in the index’s 68-year history of double-digit returns for four consecutive years. The AI infrastructure wave is sweeping the globe, with the memory sector surging 250% and North Asian stock markets collectively erupting; however, the "Magnificent Seven" unexpectedly stagnated, while the remaining 493 stocks rose 16%. Goldman Sachs warns: AI valuations require increasingly optimistic assumptions to support, and regulatory black swans are quietly approaching.

ECB President Lagarde says she does not rule out leaving early to enter French politics, making a rare personal appearance at the EU finance ministers' meeting. Lagarde stated that if macro uncertainty subsides, she does not rule out ending her current term early to participate in French politics. The ECB’s weekly agenda shows Lagarde will not only attend the Eurogroup meeting on July 9 but also the broader EU finance ministers’ meeting the following day. This personnel arrangement is quite rare, as such meetings have historically been attended by the ECB Vice President.

Germany announces a "comprehensive economic reform plan," including "raising the retirement age and easing corporate layoff restrictions." Chancellor: "I understand people’s nostalgia for the past, but we cannot hide in the past." Germany has unveiled an economic reform package covering 34 measures, involving tax cuts, raising the retirement age from 67 to 70, easing corporate layoff restrictions, and significantly streamlining bureaucratic procedures. Chancellor Merz stated, "We cannot hide in the past." Business reactions are mixed, with some industry associations deeming the measures insufficient. The reform is also a political gamble for Chancellor Merz amid declining approval ratings.

Leveraged ETF assets surge 431% in one year, South Korea’s National Assembly initiates system review discussions. South Korea’s Democratic Party special committee will hold an internal closed-door review meeting on the 6th to initiate a review of capital market policies, focusing on the regulation of single-stock leveraged ETFs. After the listing of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leveraged ETFs, their scale expanded rapidly, accused of exacerbating market volatility and harming retail investors. The head of the Financial Supervisory Service publicly acknowledged policy mistakes, and a consensus has formed within the party to tighten regulation, intending to review the regulatory framework from scratch.

South Korean stock market leverage spirals out of control: $45 billion in funds surge, SK Hynix single ETF scale overwhelms US tech giants. The scale of South Korean leveraged ETFs has risen to a record high of about $45 billion, growing about 800% in 2026, accounting for 2.9% of free-float market capitalization, tripling since the beginning of the year. SK Hynix-related products are the largest of their kind globally. Retail investors continue to pour in, combined with regulatory easing, pushing the KOSPI up over 60% year-to-date, but also making the market highly sensitive to policy news, with a single-day drop of over 7% once impacting the global chip sector. Regulators have warned of risks, and the high-leverage environment is exacerbating market liquidity and volatility pressures.

Overseas Companies

Behind Meta’s "computing power surplus" doubts: Zuckerberg says AI progress has slowed, AI head says new model has caught up to GPT-5.5. Reason for Meta "selling computing power" exposed? Zuckerberg admitted that AI agent progress has been slower than expected over the past four months. However, AI head Alexandr Wang simultaneously revealed that a new model codenamed "Watermelon" has caught up to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 in benchmark tests, with computing power investment an order of magnitude higher than the previous generation. Is Meta’s computing power surplus real? The debate continues.

Upgrade cycle narrative hits a snag; UBS survey shows Apple’s AI features fail to ignite upgrade frenzy. A UBS survey shows only 24% of consumers are willing to upgrade early due to Apple Intelligence, a decline from the first half, while those considering AI "no impact" rose to 31%. The core logic of an AI-driven iPhone upgrade cycle has not yet materialized, weighing on market confidence. The foldable iPhone becomes short-term sentiment support, expected to be released in September. UBS maintains a target price of $296, believing valuation upside is limited, with market focus shifting from AI narrative to hardware cycles and product launch pace.

Microsoft invests $2.5 billion, deploys 6,000 experts, betting on a "frontline deployment + continuous optimization" enterprise AI model. Microsoft announced the establishment of Microsoft Frontier Company, an enterprise AI business unit, investing $2.5 billion and deploying 6,000 industry and engineering experts to be stationed at client sites, providing full-process services around the design, deployment, and continuous optimization of AI systems. Microsoft stated that the new company will help enterprises achieve quantifiable AI business outcomes and promised that client data and intellectual property will not be used for model training.

Claude Code cuts 80% of prompts, Anthropic sets an example with Fable 5: The "cost reduction" in the AI industry is just beginning. Anthropic’s own spending on computing power has already reached 2.3 times its salary expenses. Based on a fully loaded cost of $224k per senior engineer, each Anthropic engineer corresponds to approximately $515k in annual computing power spending. In other words: People are not as expensive as models.

Kioxia’s 10th-generation NAND samples shipped; CEO exclaims "Demand remains strong, may increase capital expenditure," stock price sees deep V rebound! Kioxia launches its 10th-generation BiCS FLASH chip, with a 60% jump in storage density and a transmission rate of 4.8 Gbps, leading competitors by about a year in technology. The CEO took an unusually strong stance, saying "We have not seen any weakening in data center demand," not ruling out further increases in capital expenditure. However, facing the combined 70% market share dominance of Samsung and SK Hynix, along with their massive expansion spending in the hundreds of trillions of Korean won, whether Kioxia can achieve a turnaround through technological differentiation is the biggest highlight.

Key Events Today

US President Donald Trump delivers a keynote speech on July 4 local time.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

        Markets involve risk, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk.