Listed companies have net purchased 166,984 BTC this year, more than double the mining output over the same period. However, the BlackRock ETF has seen net outflows for 10 consecutive days, totaling 36k BTC. On one side, corporate treasuries are firmly buying; on the other, institutional ETFs are steadily retreating—the same asset, two completely different capital behaviors.

Buyers on the corporate side: Listed companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet view BTC as a strategic reserve, with purchase pace unaffected by price fluctuations, even accelerating. This "HODLing" behavior has spread from individual companies to a narrative, with an average net purchase of 912 BTC per day, becoming a significant buyer force in the market.

ETF outflow side: The BlackRock ETF has seen net outflows for 10 consecutive days, totaling $2.24 billion. This is not an isolated event—Bank of America data shows that crypto funds saw outflows of $2 billion last week, the largest weekly outflow since November 2025. Institutional capital appears to be systematically reducing positions.

Behind the divergence lies the difference in capital nature. Corporate HODLing is mostly long-term locked in, posing no immediate selling pressure; ETF capital is more sensitive to macroeconomics and liquidity, with outflows indicating a decline in short-term risk appetite. The market is currently experiencing the dual effects of "long-term holder accumulation" and "short-term capital exiting," with price oscillating around $62k.

The risk lies in: if ETF outflows persist, they may outweigh the marginal impact of corporate buying. Although corporate HODLing is increasing, the total amount is still far smaller than ETF holdings. When institutional capital retreat becomes a trend, corporate buying alone is insufficient to support price increases.

$btc #defi #etf #区块链 #crypto market