After staring at on-chain data for four hours, my eyes are too sore to open, and my neck is stiff—but the market actually hasn't moved much; I was just scaring myself.

Lately, I keep seeing people drawing arrows on stablecoin supply and ETF inflows, saying, "money is coming in, so it's going up," and the reverse for the opposite. I kind of want to complain: these two things are correlated, but you can't really tell which is the cause and which is the effect. Sometimes it's the same people hedging both sides, appearing coordinated but actually running their own plays.

Simply put, when outside money really enters the market, the chain wouldn't be this quiet. Now it feels more like everyone is waiting for a certain L1 upgrade to go live, guessing which projects will move overnight—at times like this, narratives run faster than money. You can follow the narrative, but following "data interpretation" might get you buried.

That's it for now. I'm going to put in some eye drops.