#非农爆冷打压加息预期 Nonfarm Payrolls "Shatter Expectations," Fed Rate Hike Enthusiasm Cools! Global Assets in Turmoil

The U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report, also the second nonfarm report since Walsh took over as Fed Chair, has gripped global markets.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 57k in June, far below market expectations of 113k, and down from the previous reading of 172k; the U.S. unemployment rate in June stood at 4.2%, the lowest level since June 2025, below the market expectation of 4.3%, and down from the prior 4.3%.
U.S. short-term interest rate futures surged after the nonfarm data release, with the market cutting bets on a Fed rate hike. Traders are fully pricing in a Fed rate hike in December, compared to October previously. Oriental Gold Credit had stated in a research report that if nonfarm data exceeded expectations, it would again boost the probability of a Fed rate hike.
This report's importance far exceeds usual due to Walsh explicitly stating on July 1 that the "rate forward guidance is not suitable for the current policy environment," looking forward to the Fed using real-time economic data to help make better decisions in the future. Against this backdrop, June nonfarm data is a key variable for the future direction of Fed rates.
After three consecutive months of U.S. employment growth exceeding expectations, the slowdown in June prompted the market to lower its expectations for a Fed rate hike. Although employment growth has declined, it remains well above the 2025 average target of 10k new jobs per year.
Additionally, the number of Americans filing initial jobless claims for the week was 215k, versus expectations of 220k and the previous figure of 215k.
The current pricing logic for the precious metals market remains dominated by the Fed's policy path. After the weak nonfarm data was released, spot gold in London surged straight up, with intraday gains expanding to over 2.6%, hitting an intraday high of $4,140.4 per ounce before pulling back.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell; the 10-year Treasury yield was last down 1.76 basis points at 4.457%; the U.S. Dollar Index briefly fell to a two-week low of 100.558.
U.S. stock futures rose, with Dow Jones futures up 0.36%, S&P 500 futures up 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.71%. In individual stocks, NVIDIA rose 0.5% in pre-market trading, ASML, AMD, and TSMC rose 2%, while Intel, Micron Technology, and Lam Research briefly rose over 3%, having previously fallen between 1% and 4%. (Previously reported: "Chip Stocks Surge, US Stock Pre-Market Sees Big Reversal")
Before the nonfarm data release, employment sentiment was already showing signs. The U.S. "small nonfarm" data released on July 1 was solid but below market expectations: U.S. ADP employment in June was 98k, the smallest increase since March, below the expected 118k, and down from the previous 122k.