Lately, I keep seeing people say that stablecoin supply increases and ETF inflows "prove" that off-exchange money is coming in, and then they start drawing trend lines to make predictions... To be honest, I did the same thing last year and got taught a lesson.

Now, my take is that the rise in supply might just be institutions rebalancing their portfolios or playing that Treasury yield arbitrage game—it's a different story from whether retail investors are actually piling in with real money. The correlation looks nice, but causality? I sure as hell can't confirm it.

The NFT royalty situation is pretty similar. Creators complain their income is shrinking, platforms claim liquidity is dying—both sides use data to blame the other. But data doesn't speak for itself; how you interpret it all depends on your stance. As for these shouting matches, I'm just gonna let the dust settle first. Steady hands beat fast hands.

That's it for now. Gotta get back to grinding interactions—the Sybil detection rules just got updated again. Annoying.