Opta supercomputer tells you—Argentina has an 82% win rate, while Cape Verde is only 6%

Brothers, let’s get straight to the hard data. Opta’s supercomputer ran 100,000 simulations, and the result is—Argentina’s probability of winning in regular time is 82%, draws are 12%, and Cape Verde’s upset win is only 6%. On Gate’s prediction market, Argentina’s win rate is also over 85%. What does 82% vs 6% even mean? Argentina’s probability of advancing is over 80%, and for Cape Verde to win is harder than winning the lottery.

Now take a look at the odds. The competition has Argentina giving a -2 handicap, and the win SP value is only 2.33. The bookmakers opened with Argentina giving -2.5, but it has already dropped to -2. What does that indicate? It means some scattered funds are backing Cape Verde, and the market’s confidence in a big Argentina win is weakening.

How did Argentina perform in the group stage? They won all three matches for 9 points, scored 8 goals while conceding only 1. Messi scored in every game—6 goals in total—and his World Cup career goals have already reached 19, topping the all-time World Cup scoring chart on his own. Lautaro also broke his World Cup goal drought. Argentina is one of only two teams in this World Cup to win all of their group-stage matches.

What about Cape Verde? In the group stage, they drew all three matches—0-0 vs Spain, 0-0 vs Uruguay, and 0-0 vs Saudi Arabia. In their debut appearance, they advanced to the knockout stage with an unbeaten record of three draws. They conceded only 2 goals across three matches. Cape Verde does have resilience, but in attack they scored only 2 goals in three matches, with a single scoring approach.

So an 82% win rate is not optimism—it’s rationality. Argentina’s dominance in the group stage is there for everyone to see. No matter how beautiful Cape Verde’s dark-horse fairy tale is, it’s still hard to continue against the defending champions. Argentina’s advancement is all but certain—the only uncertainty is how many goals.

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