Details of important BTC on-chain metrics

(Updated ~07/03/2026 – BTC Price ~61,967 USDT)

1. MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) • Current value: 1.156 • Meaning: • Compares Market Cap to Realized Cap (total value at which all holders last bought BTC). • MVRV > 1 → Holders are in average profit. • MVRV < 1 → Holders are in average loss (historically a strong accumulation zone). Current assessment: An MVRV of just 1.156 is very low compared to previous cycle peaks (usually > 3.0–5.0). The market is currently trading only ~15.6% above the average price at which all holders bought. This is a fair value to slightly undervalued zone, not euphoria.
2. MVRV Z-Score • Current value: 0.28 (data as of 07/02/2026) • Meaning: • This is a statistically normalized version of MVRV (measuring standard deviations from historical mean). • Z-Score < 0 → Market is strongly undervalued (historical bottom zone). • Z-Score 0–1 → Fair value / accumulation. • Z-Score > 3–4 → Strongly overvalued (top warning). Current assessment: A Z-Score of 0.28 is in a low zone, indicating Bitcoin is not overvalued. This level typically appears during accumulation or post-correction recovery phases, not distribution phases.
3. Realized Price • Current value: Approximately 61,000 – 62,000 USDT • Meaning: The average price at which the entire current BTC supply was last moved (on-chain basis). Current assessment: The spot price (~61,967) is very close to the Realized Price. This means: • Most holders are near breakeven or in slight profit. • Selling pressure from deeply underwater holders has significantly decreased. • The market needs fresh capital (ETF, whale accumulation) to push price higher decisively.
4. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) • Current status: Latest data shows SOPR oscillating near 1.0 (neutral). • Meaning: • SOPR > 1 → Holders are selling at a profit. • SOPR < 1 → Holders are selling at a loss (often seen at bottoms). • aSOPR (Adjusted SOPR) stable around 1 → No strong profit-taking. Current assessment: The market is in a balanced state, with neither strong capitulation nor massive profit-taking.
5. Spot Bitcoin ETF Flow • Latest (07/02/2026): +221.7 million USD inflow (largest single-day inflow in 59 days). • Prior: A streak of ~10 consecutive outflow days totaling ~2.7 billion USD. • Recent 7-day trend: Mixed, but July 2 shows signs of a positive reversal. Current assessment: Institutional flows are diverging. After a strong outflow streak, the large inflow on July 2 is a positive signal for long-term demand, especially with price near the realized price zone.