Betting $400,000 heavily on Putin stepping down before December 2026, this is definitely one of the most aggressive and single-minded one-sided bets on Polymarket.

The actual wallet is here:
Looking at the wallet's holding trajectory, all the ammo is basically placed on political and battlefield markets related to Russia-Ukraine, and the avatar even has the Ukrainian flag. The stance and emotional tendency are laid out on the table. With such a heavy bet carrying strong personal political colors, whether he really has inside information or is just recharging his faith, sometimes it's just a thin line.
From a pure game theory perspective, the probability of this prediction coming true before the end of 2026 is indeed extremely low. In such a highly centralized and opaque geopolitical landscape, whether ordinary retail investors or on-chain whales, it's basically impossible to get access to the core intelligence that truly determines the direction of political power. Instead, strong political tendencies easily lead people to infinitely amplify small signals favorable to them, resulting in fatal cognitive biases when calculating probabilities.
But this is precisely what makes prediction markets so interesting.
Is this $400,000 bet a dimensionality reduction strike by a geopolitical expert, or a die-hard believer paying for his own emotions with real money? Before the time comes, no one knows. And that wallet with the Ukrainian flag has become the most expensive indicator of this geopolitical gamble watched by the entire internet.
If you want to copy trade on Polymarket, I recommend Polycop:
#Polymarket