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🔥Reasons for today’s upward movement in the markets:
1. Easing in US Employment Data (Biggest Trigger)
The main rally in global markets began after the June Non-Farm Employment report from the US came in well below expectations (an increase of 57,000 versus a forecast of 113,000).
Fed expectations: This slowdown in the employment market significantly weakened the likelihood of a Fed rate hike and boosted expectations that the Fed will take a more dovish stance.
Asset performance: With this development, the US dollar index (DXY) weakened, while the Dow Jones index set a fresh record high. On the gold side, the per-ounce price surged above 4,100 dollars, marking a strong advance. (Although US markets are closed today due to the July 4 Independence Day holiday, futures and global markets continue to price in this data.)
2. Domestic Inflation Data and Expectations
In domestic markets, the June inflation data released by TÜİK was followed in the morning hours.
Data: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.99% month-on-month and 32.11% year-on-year.
Market impact: Inflation coming in below 1% on a monthly basis and the continuation of the year-on-year downward trend supported positive expectations for the macroeconomic rebalancing process, keeping risk appetite alive in domestic assets.
Borsa İstanbul flat.
In summary, the weak US employment data reduced pressure on the Fed, giving a lifeline to equities, commodities, and risk assets globally; domestically, the continuation of the disinflation process in inflation were the key factors supporting this rise.
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