The increase rate dropped from 90% to 20%, and most people's first reaction is that memory is about to peak.

This judgment might cause you to miss the upcoming market trend.
Samsung's latest price increase of 20% is the smallest among the three quarters this year: 90% in Q1, 50% to 60% in Q2, and 20% in Q3, steadily narrowing.
But what really matters isn’t the increase itself—it’s who depends on whom, and whether the demand structure behind the price hike has changed.
Let’s start with the demand structure. AI and servers accounted for 46% of total industry DRAM consumption in 2024, rising to 56% in 2025, and expected to reach 66% in 2026.
The demand pie itself is shifting toward AI. TrendForce estimates DRAM demand will grow 26% year-over-year in 2026, while supply can only keep up with 20%. The gap remains and won’t close automatically just because the quarterly increase narrows.
Now look at who depends on whom. Micron has signed 16 long-term supply agreements, locking in through 2030. Customers provided $22 billion in advance deposits, of which $18 billion was cash—money Micron can use directly to expand capacity.
Two years ago, the process was the opposite: manufacturers sat on inventory begging customers to place orders, while customers dragged their feet without committing. Now customers rush to pay deposits to lock in capacity, and manufacturers have become the ones with the upper hand.
The breadth of price hikes also tells the story. It’s not just server DRAM and HBM that are rising; even LPDDR memory used in phones and PCs will rise over 20%. This shows it’s not a shortage in a single niche, but the entire product line being squeezed by AI demand.
Of course, there are opposing voices. Some semiconductor industry insiders say it’s uncertain whether customers will fully accept the LPDDR price hike, and cost pressures on handset makers and PC manufacturers are already building.
But a narrowing increase does not mean demand has peaked. As long as AI servers keep consuming an increasingly larger share of DRAM capacity, and customers keep rushing to pay deposits, memory makers won’t lose their leverage.
The real inflection point won’t appear in price hike announcements—it will show up when the growth rate of AI capital expenditures truly turns around.
Until then, don’t mistake the narrowing increase for the end.