Bank of America: US stock funds saw the largest weekly outflow since March, with the "sell signal" persisting for six weeks.

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Mars Finance News, July 3 - According to Bank of America's latest weekly report, for the week ending July 1, U.S. stock funds saw $17.2 billion in outflows, the largest weekly net redemption since March 2026, marking the second consecutive week of net outflows. Meanwhile, the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rose from 9.1 to 9.5, remaining in the "extremely bullish" zone. BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett stated that the "sell signal" triggered by this indicator on May 20 remains in effect. According to BofA data, since 2002, the indicator has triggered 17 "sell signals," with global stocks subsequently declining an average of 2% to 3% over the next 2 to 3 months. The signal's accuracy rate is approximately 60%, with a historical maximum drawdown of 15% to 20%. In terms of fund flows, investment-grade bonds attracted $17.2 billion in inflows for the week, marking 13 consecutive weeks of net inflows; high-yield bonds saw $3.4 billion in inflows, the largest single-week inflow since May 2025. Tech funds attracted $14.3 billion for the week, with year-to-date cumulative inflows on track to set a record of $152 billion. Meanwhile, Japanese equity funds attracted $1.9 billion for the week, the largest single-week inflow in nearly seven weeks. Against the backdrop of U.S. stock outflows, the semiconductor sector faced notable pressure, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 11% over the past two trading days. JPMorgan strategists pointed out that the extreme outperformance of U.S. semiconductor stocks relative to AI hyperscale cloud computing companies has created an unsustainable valuation gap, which is expected to narrow eventually. Commodities and gold continued to face pressure, with gold seeing $3 billion in outflows for the week, marking seven consecutive weeks of outflows; cryptocurrencies saw $2 billion in outflows, the largest single-week outflow since November 2025.
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