TermMax Daily Topic: (US stocks are not open today, Micron and other storage stocks won't recover until Monday) Prediction markets make me think of a particularly interesting question: why are many people very accurate in a single prediction, but get progressively worse when predicting ten times in a row? Later I discovered that the problem might not be about predictive ability. Rather: people fall too easily in love with their own judgment. After the first correct judgment; the second time they become more confident;