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Analysis: Weaker US employment data eases rate hike concerns, and positive factors such as the return of Bitcoin spot ETF buying drive Bitcoin rebound.

MarsBitNews
Mars Finance News, July 3 - U.S. employment data came in weaker than expected, easing market concerns about further tightening by the Federal Reserve and boosting demand for risk assets. Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said the data weakened the narrative of a re-acceleration in the U.S. labor market. Interest rate markets still price in rate hikes this year, but the implied probability has dropped from around 85% before the data release to 77%, while the probability of a rate hike this month has also fallen from about 30% to around 18%. In terms of fund flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $224 million on Thursday, ending a 10-day outflow streak, indicating that buying on dips has begun to return after approximately $2.4 billion in redemptions. QCP Capital analysts said pressure in the options market has also eased as spot prices rebounded, with one-week at-the-money implied volatility falling from the mid-40% range to the high-30% range, and the term structure reverting to contango after inverting during the sell-off. However, QCP believes the employment data is not entirely a dovish signal. Although job growth came in below expectations, faster wage growth, a lower unemployment rate, and still-strong consumer spending may suggest labor supply contraction rather than demand cooling, leaving room for the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance. QCP noted that the market has pushed back rate hike expectations from September to December, but cross-asset performance does not yet support a true policy pivot, and attention should remain on the July 14 CPI, July 15 PPI, and the FOMC meeting at the end of the month.
BTC0.62%
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