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UBS raises memory chip price forecasts again, says DRAM shortage expected to last until 2028.

MarsBitNews
Mars Finance News, July 3 – UBS stated that based on industry research, it has raised its DDR contract price baseline forecast to a 32% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3 2026 and an 18% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q4 2026, compared to previous forecasts of 17% and 12% quarter-on-quarter increases, respectively. UBS continues to expect the DRAM industry to remain in a state of supply shortage at least until 2028. By 2027, the gap between DRAM demand growth and supply growth is expected to widen to 17%. Assuming no downstream inventory digestion in 2027, i.e., customers' inventories remain adequate after restocking in the second half of 2026, the supply shortage ratio will deteriorate from 8.1% in 2026 to 13.6% in 2027. UBS noted that both levels have not been seen in the past 30 years. On the NAND side, UBS currently forecasts a 30% quarter-on-quarter price increase in Q3 2026 and a 12% increase in Q4 2026, and expects the NAND upward cycle to last at least until Q4 2027. UBS also raised its memory industry revenue forecast to $992 billion in 2026 and $1.763 trillion in 2027. The main risk lies in the affordability of hyperscale cloud providers, especially as they still need to continue accessing capital markets to finance capital expenditures.
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