While ETF funds saw outflows for 10 consecutive days, whales accumulated $16.7 billion worth of BTC in two weeks. This divergence has historically only appeared near cycle bottoms.

Yesterday, ETFs finally saw a net inflow of $222 million, ending a $2.7 billion sell-off wave. But a single day's recovery does not signify a trend reversal—the options market shows traders remain skeptical of the rebound, with put demand still high.
Glassnode's data deserves a closer look: the proportion of long-term holders' holdings has risen to 78%, but most of this is the natural aging of coins bought at $90k six months ago, not active accumulation. The real test comes in August—only if by then the BTC bought around $60k in February enters the long-term holding phase can the bottom demand be confirmed.
The downside risk is that the simultaneous retreat of ETF institutional funds and whale accumulation indicates the market is undergoing a transfer of coins from weak hands to strong hands. The cost of this process is often a final round of washout. Currently, loss-making coins (10.83 million) outnumber profit-making coins (9.22 million), with high-conviction holders absorbing them, but macro variables—the Fed's hawkish stance and AI capital siphoning—could still trigger a new round of liquidations.
Divergence itself is not a signal; it is how the divergence resolves that matters.
$btc #etf # on-chain data #ai # blockchain