Dan Bin's latest speech: Don't miss out on a great era.

Author: Dan Bin

On June 29, Dan Bin, Chairman of Oriental Harbor, delivered a keynote speech at the Gelonhui "2026--All-in Silicon-Based New Era" Mid-Term Strategy Summit, titled "Don't Miss a Great Era."

Regarding the market's concerns about the AI bubble, Dan Bin pointed out from an industrial cycle perspective: "The risk of missing an era may be greater than the risk of worrying about a short-term bubble."

In his view, humanity stands at the dawn of the AI era—an era that could be more disruptive than the electronic, internet, and mobile internet eras.

He believes the AI wave is unlikely to end in just three to four years. At the industry level, it may follow a ten-year pace similar to the internet era, with ChatGPT's release at the end of 2022 as the starting point, and the real risk reference point around 2033.

He noted that the "main driver" of long-term growth in capital markets is technological progress, while trade wars, interest rate hikes, and wars are only secondary factors. He also discussed the long-term logic of silicon-based life replacing carbon-based life from a human civilization perspective, emphasizing that investment should focus on the main driver and respect corporate innovation and market common sense.

Finally, he stressed never letting down this great era.

"The tide never turns back. The giant wheel of the times rolls silently forward. Being born at the right time is already a great fortune. Don't let hesitation trap your steps, don't let shortsightedness waste the years—never miss this magnificent era that belongs to us."

The following is an excerpt of Dan Bin's speech compiled by Gelonhui, shared with everyone.

01 From an Industrial Cycle Perspective, the Risk of Missing the AI Era Is Greater Than the Risk of Worrying About a Short-Term Bubble

Recently, people keep asking: Is there an AI bubble? What about the short term?

Dan Bin’s answer is: From a long-term industry development perspective, for market participants, the risk of missing an era may be greater than the risk of worrying about a short-term bubble. Of course, facing short-term fluctuations and uncertainties, investors must also make independent judgments based on their own investment cycles and risk tolerance.

Looking back at the Nasdaq’s 55-year history since its establishment in 1971, the core driving force behind long-term growth in capital markets is technological progress, not short-term factors like interest rates or macroeconomic policies.

Some worry that high interest rates could lead to a market crash.

Let’s look at history: In the 1970s, the U.S. benchmark interest rate once reached 22%, yet the electronic hardware era saw a 6.5-fold increase over 16 years; the internet era experienced a complete rate-cut and rate-hike cycle, soaring for a full 10 years; the same was true for the mobile internet era. Interest rates have never been the main cause; technological progress is the main cause.

02 The AI Era Is More Disruptive Than the Previous Three Eras; at the Industry Level, It May Follow the Ten-Year Pace of the Internet Era

He further pointed out that at last year’s annual meeting, he predicted 2026 might resemble 1994—a big rally after a cross-star. The years 23, 24, and 25 have already seen three years of strong gains, and this year continues to show strong industrial momentum.

"Why? Because the AI era is more disruptive than the previous three eras—the electronic era, the internet era, and the mobile internet era."

Dan Bin’s basic judgment is that the AI era, like the internet era, will have a long industrial cycle—ChatGPT was released at the end of 2022. If we follow the "ten-year" historical pace of the internet, that point (around 2033) is likely a reference window for reviewing risk. Before that, the AI industry's evolution is unlikely to end in three to four years. However, short-term market volatility and local bubbles objectively exist, and investors must still rationally assess based on their own circumstances.

03 The Long-Term Vision of Silicon-Based Life: A Thought Experiment from a Civilizational Perspective

Dan Bin showed two videos, elevating the perspective from capital markets to the dimension of human civilization.

His view is highly imaginative: Silicon-based life replacing carbon-based life is a highly probable direction. If Earth’s civilization is to continue, silicon-based life will likely replace carbon-based life or become the dominant productive force.

He provided a set of time coordinates spanning vast scales:

In 4.1 billion years, the sun may expand into a red giant engulfing Earth, or collapse into a white dwarf.

Voyager has been flying for 77 years and still needs about 7,000 light-years to leave the solar system.

In 10 billion years, the Andromeda Galaxy may collide with the Milky Way—by then, humanity must escape the Milky Way.

"Carbon-based life cannot fly out of the Milky Way. But silicon-based life—it is a million times smarter than us, thinking and working 24 hours a day without interruption. The revolutionary changes it brings may take civilization further in ways beyond our cognition."

Dan Bin stated that this is not a short-term investment judgment but a thinking framework: The economic growth paradigm brought by silicon-based intelligence may have infinite possibilities and a longer industrial chain. Understanding this helps to look beyond immediate distractions and examine long-term trends.

04 Technology Rewrites the Rules of War; China and the US Neither Can Afford to Lose in AI Competition

Dan Bin showed a recent example from the Russia-Ukraine battlefield: a Russian soldier was captured by Ukrainian drones and robots.

"The weaponization of AI is an exponential change; it is an inevitable process."

He believes that neither China nor the US can afford to lose this AI race. The US has a first-mover advantage in underlying technology and top talent, while China forms a differentiated competitive edge in application scenarios, data scale, and industrial chain completeness. Both sides are continuously increasing their long-term investments in AI.

05 Buffett's "Regret" and Oriental Harbor’s Cognitive Evolution

Dan Bin compared the holdings of "old-timers" in China and the US.

Buffett bought Google in the third quarter of last year and continued to add this year, with Google entering Berkshire’s top five holdings.

"Before he passed away, Munger said in an interview that his era should have earned 100 billion or even 1 trillion. He was so close to Bill Gates, yet only symbolically bought 100 shares of Microsoft. Microsoft rose 7,000 times."

"If he had taken 70k from Coca-Cola to buy Microsoft, that would be 700 billion, more than all the money he ever made."

Dan Bin admitted that these historical snippets cannot predict the future, but they remind us that investment requires constantly breaking cognitive boundaries. Oriental Harbor is also iterating and evolving: Our company’s research team continues to conduct in-depth tracking in AI basic computing, storage, and other links.

06 Calm Down, Maintain Your Position, and Rationally Hold the Chips the Era Has Given

Dan Bin ended with a poem he wrote:

"The tide never turns back. The giant wheel of the times rolls silently forward.

Some are trapped in the trivial noise before them, others stand above the cycle gazing at the stars.

Don’t dwell on momentary ups and downs, don’t blindly follow fleeting heat and cold.

Mountains and rivers are reborn in change, opportunities blossom in long-term persistence.

Being born at the right time is already a great fortune. Don’t let hesitation trap your steps, don’t let shortsightedness waste the years.

Live well, move forward earnestly, and never miss this magnificent era that belongs to us."