Samsung discusses cooperation, SK Hynix expands production, and Kioxia sends NAND samples; Japanese and South Korean stock markets respond to fears of computing power glut with V-shaped rebounds.

After two consecutive days of heavy selling, Japanese and South Korean tech stocks saw a strong rebound, driven by a series of positive factors from the industrial side, reversing the earlier trading logic around "AI computing power oversupply."

On July 3, South Korea's KOSPI index fell over 3% in early trading before quickly rebounding to a 5% gain, triggering a programmatic buy circuit breaker; Japan's semiconductor sector also surged significantly, showing a deep-V recovery pattern. Individually, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both rose over 8%, while Kioxia surged more than 10% at one point, driving a broad recovery in the Japanese and Korean semiconductor sectors. By close, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.5%, and the Topix index gained 1.2%; South Korea's Seoul Composite Index surged 5.8%.

The direct catalyst for the rebound came from multiple new developments in the AI industry chain. According to reports, AI startup Anthropic is in talks with Samsung Electronics to collaborate on custom AI chips, boosting market expectations for Samsung's foundry business prospects. Meanwhile, Samsung and SK Hynix continue to advance AI semiconductor expansion plans and announced a new round of investment; Kioxia announced that its 10th-generation 3D NAND chips have been sampled to AI data center customers, signaling that demand remains strong.

However, as AI investment enters a new phase focused more on returns and capital efficiency, the market is still cautiously evaluating the supply-demand balance and capacity expansion pace of the industry chain, and these differences have not been fundamentally resolved.

AI Catalysts Lead Rebound, Samsung’s Strategic Collaboration and Earnings Expectations Converge

This round of market rebound was first driven by new catalysts in the AI industry chain.

According to reports, Anthropic is discussing collaboration with Samsung Electronics to develop custom AI chips. Although the collaboration is still in its early stages, the market believes it indicates that Samsung's foundry business is likely to further participate in the AI chip ecosystem.

Jung In Yun, CEO of Fibonacci Asset Management Global, stated that while the short-term earnings contribution from this collaboration is limited, it holds positive strategic significance, helping strengthen Samsung's important position in the AI chip field and further highlighting Asia's role in the AI semiconductor supply chain.

At the same time, the market has begun to pre-trade Samsung's upcoming preliminary quarterly results. Analysts generally expect the company's second-quarter earnings to continue growing significantly, with investors focusing more on management's judgment regarding the persistence of AI memory demand.

South Korean Leaders Continue Capacity Expansion, Attempting to Address Market Concerns About AI Demand

In stark contrast to previous market concerns, South Korean semiconductor companies continue to expand investment.

On July 2, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix announced new factory plans again. According to public information, Samsung plans to invest approximately 140 trillion won in the Chungcheong region of South Korea, covering areas such as HBM fabs, high-performance packaging, OLED, and next-generation batteries; SK Hynix plans to invest approximately 100 trillion won, focusing on NAND and advanced packaging.

Meanwhile, the South Korean government announced it would promote corporate investment of over 312 trillion won in the southeastern region, focusing on semiconductors, AI, and aerospace industries. Among them, SK Group, Samsung, Hanwha, and Hyundai Motor will participate in relevant investments.

From the performance of South Korea's capital market, although there are short-term market fluctuations, the leading South Korean memory chip companies are still choosing to continue investing to stabilize market expectations for long-term AI growth.

Industry insiders also believe that Meta's recent leasing of some idle computing power should be understood more as resource optimization, rather than a turning point in AI infrastructure demand. As AI companies place more emphasis on cost control in the future, the trend toward self-developed chips may actually strengthen further.

Samsung Pushes DRAM Price Hikes, Long-Term Agreements Strengthen Earnings Expectations

Beyond demand expectations, prices have also become a market focus.

According to South Korean media ZDNet, Samsung Electronics is negotiating Q3 DRAM prices with customers, aiming to raise the average selling price of general DRAM by up to 20% compared to Q2; price increases for server and mobile LPDDR products could also exceed 20%.

Industry insiders state that the continuous construction of AI infrastructure keeps demand for server DRAM, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and LPDDR tight, and supply pressure is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term.

Notably, long-term supply agreements (LTAs) are becoming an important support for stable industry earnings.

Micron previously disclosed that the company has signed 16 long-term supply agreements with customers. These agreements not only lock in purchase volumes but also set price floors, helping reduce the risk of significant price declines in the future. Industry insiders believe that with the increased proportion of long-term agreements, the likelihood of a significant downturn in the DRAM market next year is relatively low.

However, some insiders also point out that Samsung's stance in price negotiations is relatively tough, and whether customers can fully accept the price increase plan remains to be seen.

Kioxia Launches Next-Gen NAND, Betting on AI Data Center Demand

Japanese memory manufacturer Kioxia chose to respond to market skepticism with new products.

The company announced that its 10th-generation BiCS FLASH 3D NAND has begun sampling to AI data center customers, with plans to start mass production in 2027. The new product uses a 332-layer stacking architecture and self-developed CBA technology, increasing storage density by about 60% compared to the previous generation, with an interface speed of 4.8Gbps.

According to reports, Kioxia believes that compared to designs with over 400 layers, the 332-layer architecture achieves a better balance among cost, power consumption, and reliability.

CEO Hiroo Ota stated that the company sees no signs of weakening data center demand and will continue to actively respond to market growth, not ruling out further increases in capital expenditure. He believes that with the development of AI agents and robotics applications, the flash memory market still has significant room for growth.

However, market competition is also intensifying.

According to estimates by Omdia analyst Akira Minamikawa, in 2025, Samsung Electronics holds about 40% of the data center NAND market share, SK Hynix about 30%, and Kioxia about 10%. South Korean manufacturers, leveraging their one-stop sales capability from HBM products, remain a significant competitive pressure for Kioxia.

Meanwhile, SK Hynix plans to invest in building new NAND production facilities, and Samsung is also planning new NAND lines. Simultaneous capacity expansion by the three major players means the market will continue to focus on supply-demand dynamics and price trends.

Market Begins to Reassess AI Investment Returns

Although this rebound has eased market panic, industry insiders generally believe that the investment logic in the AI industry is undergoing changes.

Analysts say the industry is shifting from the previous "unlimited purchase of AI chips" to a greater focus on return on investment. In the future, cloud service providers will purchase products like memory chips more carefully, and AI infrastructure investment will enter a new phase prioritizing efficiency.

After this week's sharp volatility, whether the AI industry chain can maintain high-growth expectations in the future will remain a core variable for market attention.

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