Fidelity Global Macro Director: Bitcoin recently approached "Power Law support," but the rebound catalyst has not yet appeared.

On July 1, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $58,278, almost precisely touching the $58,237 Power Law model support line highlighted by Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments. The next day, it rebounded to $61,865, a single-day gain of 6.15%. Jurrien Timmer stated that Bitcoin is approaching this long-term valuation support, but the macro catalyst to drive a trend reversal has not yet emerged.
Previously: BTC long-term holders turn to net accumulation, retail investors enter first
Background: Mr. Berg: BTC accumulation trend score deepens, funds enter after price breaks below 60K

Key Summary

• Power Law model support line is at $58,237, with $60k being a psychological and technical level
• Bitcoin rebounded 6.15% on July 2, recovering from $58,278 to $61,865
• Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer: Liquidity slowdown, funds shifting to tech stocks, reversal catalyst not yet present

Last week, Bitcoin briefly bottomed at $58,278, just a step away from the $58,237 Power Law support line marked by Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments.

This Power Law line comes from the long-term valuation model by astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi, which uses the number of days since Bitcoin's genesis block in 2009 to calculate the price trajectory, with a long-term explanatory power of about 96%.

Jurrien Timmer stated that Bitcoin is approaching the support line, but the reversal catalyst has not yet appeared.

Price approaches support line, $60,000 is the psychological defense

On July 1, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $58,278, almost precisely touching the $58,237 support line. Less than 24 hours later, the price rebounded to $61,865, a single-day gain of 6.15%, pulling back $3,587 in one day. The $60,000 level is both a psychological defense and a technical pivot. If broken, market sentiment and trend structure could weaken.

This Power Law support line has a decent track record. In 2015, Bitcoin touched $230, while the model expected $252; in the 2018 bear market, it bottomed at $3,204, with the model expecting $2,521; after the FTX collapse in 2022, the bottom was at $16,366, with the model expecting $15,006. All three cycle bottoms were close to the support line.

Why hasn't the macro catalyst arrived yet?

Jurrien Timmer pointed out that Bitcoin currently lacks not technical support, but a macro catalyst that can drive a trend reversal. The slowdown in global liquidity growth is the first issue; the monetary environment has not loosened, and risk asset momentum has weakened accordingly. The second issue is the direction of funds; speculative capital continues to flow into tech stocks, and Bitcoin is not the first choice.

The speculative premium that once pushed Bitcoin to $120,000 has now been exhausted. It is down about 13% from $71,123 a month ago, and the decline has expanded to about 43% from $108,861 a year ago.

Before the Fed's policy path becomes clear, even if Bitcoin holds support, it may only trade in a range.

"Bitcoin is approaching its Power Law support line, but I haven't seen the catalyst for a reversal yet." — Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments

The above is his view, not investment advice.

FAQ

What is the Bitcoin Power Law model?
A long-term valuation model proposed by astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi, which uses the number of days since Bitcoin's genesis block in 2009 to calculate the price trajectory, with a long-term explanatory power of about 96%. It is often used to mark historical support and resistance levels.

Why is the $58,237 support line important?
This is the current long-term support level identified by the model. In the past three cycles (2015, 2018, 2022), market bottoms were all close to the model's expectations, making it an important reference for observing whether Bitcoin is forming a bottom.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please carefully assess risks before investing.