If the S&P 500 can hold the 7,530 level this year, it would mark only the second time in history that the index has posted double-digit returns for four consecutive years.

The last time this happened was during the 1995-1999 dot-com bubble, when the S&P 500 posted double-digit gains for five consecutive years, with even the worst year delivering a 20% annual return.

Applying a historical cyclical approach, this AI bull run either has at most two more years left, or it will continue to surge, setting an unprecedented record. Personally, I think the former scenario is more likely.

However, I also noticed an interesting point: in the year before the internet bull market erupted—1994—the S&P 500 fell only 1% for the entire year. Apart from that year, from 1991 to 1999 throughout the entire 1990s, U.S. stocks were in a continuous uptrend until the peak in March 2000.

Looking at the present, aside from the 2022 rate hike year, U.S. stocks have also been in a continuous uptrend from 2019 to now.

Furthermore, from a technical perspective, there is a very noteworthy observation: during the 1995-1999 internet bull market, the monthly candlestick never broke below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, but whenever it touched the upper band, a pullback was highly probable.

This has also been confirmed in the current AI bull run. Even the major pullback caused by tariff wars last year did not break below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands—it merely dipped briefly and quickly recovered.

Moreover, in March 2024, October 2025, and May this year, the index price touched the upper band, and the following month's candlestick closed lower in every case, with no exception—a pullback occurred each time.

Looking at this, history feels strikingly similar. If the script really follows this path, this AI bull run is still in its second half sprint and hasn't yet reached the stage where the heat is turned up to reduce the sauce. When it touches the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, be sure to reduce positions—this is a bloody lesson from history.