I used to think on-chain data doesn't lie, and by watching a few whale wallet transfer paths, you can get a piece of the pie. Then last time I followed a "coincidental transfer" for three hops, only to find that all the intermediate addresses were new wallets, and it ended up in an exchange hot wallet. No narrative at all, just pure noise.

Now I get it: on-chain is only half the picture. That attention economy of social mining—you could say it's a false proposition, yet people have actually made money from it; or you could say it's not, but most of the time it's just the whales drawing up imaginary pies and retail taking the bait. Anyway, I'm doing rebalancing now: giving half weight to on-chain signals and half to sentiment. When either side becomes extreme, I adjust a bit toward the other.

In short, stubbornly saying "I only look at XX" is just laziness. Admitting you don't fully understand actually helps you lose less. That's it for now.