7.3 Afternoon Thoughts: Gold Surges to 4195 Then Plunges! Bulls and Bears Face Key Decision

Gold continued its strong bullish trend during the day, starting to rise from around 4115 in the Asian session. Concentrated buying power drove gold prices to a sharp short-term surge, reaching a session high of 4195. The target of 4180 given in the morning analysis was successfully achieved, with the morning session's swing gaining over 80 points. After the surge, bullish momentum quickly weakened as profit-taking concentrated, driving prices lower, resulting in a typical surge-and-retreat pattern.

From a fundamental perspective, this rally was driven by the positive non-farm payroll data, increasing expectations of a Fed rate cut, and risk-averse sentiment from geopolitical tensions. The core reason for the surge and retreat is the gradual digestion of short-term positive factors, a rebound in the US dollar index, and selling pressure from bullish profit-taking. However, the macro logic of the global rate-cutting cycle remains unchanged, and the medium-to-long-term support for gold remains solid.

From a technical perspective, on the 10-minute chart, gold prices surged above the upper Bollinger Band before quickly returning to the channel. Short-term moving averages have turned downward, with the 4195 level forming a clear short-term resistance. The first support below is in the 4160-4150 range. The MACD shows a bearish divergence signal, indicating a need for short-term correction.

Trading reference: Short in batches on rebounds to the 4180-4200 range, targeting 4150 and 4100. $XAUT