Friday is a U.S. holiday, so U.S. stocks will not open. Then comes a three-day holiday. The recent two days' performance of U.S. stocks has not been great, mainly due to the pullback in the semiconductor sector. The reasons have been mentioned in the two pinned tweets. Since last week, institutions and hedge funds have been exiting tech stocks, and those who took over afterward should mostly be retail investors. The subsequent trend still needs to be observed based on data.

Have institutions and hedge funds re-entered, or are they still waiting for a better time? Letting the market cool down a bit might not be a bad thing. The earnings season starts in late July, so the time to relax won't be long. Additionally, today's non-farm payroll data shows a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, but the number of employed people is also declining. Overall, this is not good data. On one hand, the probability of a Fed rate cut decreases; on the other hand, the U.S. economy looks somewhat pessimistic.

Of course, labor data is not the dominant factor in the market now. The key is still inflation. Oil prices have stabilized below $70, almost back to pre-war levels. It should take about a month for retail oil prices to drop as well. By around the September FOMC meeting, we should see signs of improving inflation. Rate hikes are highly unlikely in 2026, but rate cuts are even more difficult.

Bitcoin's performance has been decent over the past two days. Even with U.S. stocks declining, $BTC the price trend has been quite stable, consistently staying around $60,000. This supports my often-repeated view that purchasing power is strong at $60,000. My luck with the dual currency hasn't been great. The Bitcoin I bought at $59,000 actually executed at $60,000, which is a bit frustrating.

Then on Friday, there was also a high sell order at $62,000, which seems at risk of being executed as well. I find that I'm really not suited to selling Bitcoin. Every time I sell, it feels a bit uncomfortable, even though this was a test preparation I made in advance. My main position remains untouched.#非农爆冷打压加息预期 $BTC