Stablecoin money printers and ETF net inflows are brought up every day, but after seeing it for a while, it always feels... like mistaking the thermometer for the cause of the disease.

When supply goes up, does price necessarily follow? When money comes in from off-chain, does it definitely buy the coins in your hands?

Simply put, correlation looks like causation, but there are actually eight hundred variables in between.

The same goes for governance: high voter turnout doesn't mean the proposal is good; it might just be the airdrop expectation driving the vote.

Recently, the MEV issue is back in the trending topics with criticism. Retail investors say the ordering is unfair.

But think about it: miners need to make a living, validators need to cover costs. This incentive design is inherently about finding a balance between 'fairness' and 'functionality.'

Criticism aside, if you were in that position, you might not do any better.

Anyway, now when I look at on-chain data, I first ask myself: is this a result or a cause? After asking, I often find I don't know either. That's it for now.