$BTC 7.3 Crypto Quick Report

June non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations, market rate hike expectations have notably cooled, BTC strongly rebounded and held above $61,800, with a single-day gain of over 3%. ETH and SOL rose nearly 5%, with $490 million in liquidations across the network in 24 hours. Short positions were heavily covered, and market panic has eased substantially.
MSTR surged 7.9% to close at $100.77. Short-term negative correlation pressure has been lifted. The company received approval for a $1.25 billion BTC monetization quota and share buyback plan, temporarily alleviating cash flow concerns. However, STRC preferred shares are still deeply discounted, and medium-to-long-term concerns about BTC selling have not been fully eliminated.
On the macro front, CME data shows the probability of a July rate hike has dropped to 17.6%. Multiple institutions predict the window for a rate cut this year may be brought forward to October. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have fallen in tandem, while gold surged past $4,100. Risk assets are recovering collectively.
On the industry side, after the implementation of the EU's MiCA regulation, funds have concentrated on leading platforms. The Open USD stablecoin jointly launched by Visa and BlackRock continues to divert USDC's market share, reshaping the stablecoin landscape.
Trading strategy: The daily chart has shifted from bearish to a wide-range repair consolidation. Do not chase highs. The upper resistance is $62,500-$63,000. On a pullback to the $60,000 support level, you can take a small long position with a strict stop-loss. Only if it breaks and holds above $63,200 with volume, consider a trend reversal. In the short term, be cautious of profit-taking after the rebound.
Risk warning: Crypto assets are extremely volatile. This content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.