Gu Jingci: Bitcoin and Ethereum short-term diversity, focus on trading near 62,000

On July 3, Bitcoin and Ethereum were around 61,500 and 1,700 respectively, rebounding from earlier levels, mainly influenced by factors such as weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data. There is some short-term upward trend, but long-term growth remains constrained by multiple factors, making the trajectory uncertain.

Price trend and market sentiment: Bitcoin rebounded from around 59,000 to a high of 62,200, then maintained near 61,400, with the market in a phase of consolidation after positive news. Ethereum broke above 1,700 on July 2, rising 5.93% intraday. The market Fear & Greed Index remains at a low level, but short-term sentiment has improved due to the price rebound.

Capital flow: Previously, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw continuous net outflows, but there have been recent signs of inflows. If ETF capital continues to flow in, it will provide strong support for prices; otherwise, price increases are unlikely to be sustained.

Technical indicators: Bitcoin's short-term core support is at 60,500 and 60,000, with strong support at 59,000 serving as the line for the strength of this rebound. Short-term resistance above is at 61,800 and 62,200; if these levels hold, it can continue to rise towards 62,800, with medium-term strong resistance at 63,500. Ethereum's daily RSI is in the oversold zone, indicating a need for correction, but moving averages remain in a bearish arrangement, with prices under long-term pressure below the MA30 and 200-day moving averages. Key resistance above can be watched around 1,865, while key support below is around 1,500.

Influencing factors: June non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations, with downward revisions to employment data and declines in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, leading to increased expectations of market easing—this is the main reason for the rebound in the crypto market. In the long term, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a key factor; if it continues to maintain a hawkish stance, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices will remain under pressure. Meanwhile, Ethereum also faces weakening on-chain demand, with its 14-day average active addresses dropping 46% from the year's high, DeFi and NFT trading volumes staying low, and Gas fees hovering at low levels. Insufficient network demand will also weaken its price upward momentum. #GateCard上线积分体系 #非农爆冷打压加息预期 #预测世界杯阿根廷VS佛得角