Stock Goddess Cathie Wood: The June non-farm payroll report is just data distortion, and the immediate inflation risk is less than 2%.

ARK Invest co-founder Cathie Wood believes that the recession signals in the June nonfarm payroll report come from distorted economic data, with real-time inflation data showing U.S. prices only rising 1.75%.
(Previous summary: U.S. June nonfarm payrolls added only 57k, far below expectations! Previous data revised down by 74k, Fed rate hike expectations plummet)
(Background supplement: Female stock god Cathie Wood "bought the dip" with $75 million in June, snapping up cryptocurrency concept stocks, undeterred by Circle's 40% plunge)

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• Nonfarm data: June added 57k, less than half of expectations
• Warsh reform five key points: Use private data to cross-verify government statistics
• Trueflation real-time data: Inflation only 1.75%, U.S. Treasury yields may decline further
• Implications for Taiwanese investors

Cathie Wood, co-founder of ARK Invest, said on her July 3 monthly program "In The Know" that the U.S. June nonfarm payroll report is full of recession signals, but she believes the problem lies not in the economy itself, but in how economic data is calculated.

Nonfarm data: June added 57k, less than half of expectations

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 2 showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57k in June, roughly half of the market expectation of 115k. Data for April and May were also revised down by 74k. Meanwhile, household employment decreased by about 500k, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%.

Wood noted: "If you only look at this employment report, you would think the U.S. has already fallen into a recession." But she emphasized that the real problem is not the U.S. economy, but that the statistical data used to measure the economy itself may have biases.

Warsh reform five key points: Use private data to cross-verify government statistics

On the show, Wood introduced five key work priorities proposed by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, with several related to data quality being particularly critical:

• Reduce market noise caused by frequent public speeches by Fed officials
• Use private sector data to cross-verify potentially biased government statistics
• Promote the Fed to improve policy transparency and decision-making efficiency

These five working groups will examine the Fed's communication methods, data sources, inflation observation, AI's impact on the economy, and the path to reduce the $67 trillion balance sheet, starting from "first principles." According to CNBC, this is the first time in recent years that a Fed chair has launched such a comprehensive policy review.

Trueflation real-time data: Inflation only 1.75%, U.S. Treasury yields may decline further

Wood also cited data from Trueflation, a real-time inflation data platform, pointing out that the current overall inflation rate in the U.S. is only 1.75%, less than half of the official CPI reading of 4.2%.

"This implies that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may decline further," Wood said. "The current yield curve is behaving very similarly to the Industrial Revolution period, reflecting that the market is sniffing out deflation risks in advance."

Trueflation calculates inflation using real-time price data from over 400k products. Compared with the official CPI's monthly sample survey, its data is updated more frequently and covers a wider range. Currently, Trueflation's real-time dashboard shows inflation has been below the 2% target for several consecutive months.

Implications for Taiwanese investors

If inflation is indeed lower than official data, the Fed's rate decision benchmark may also need adjustment. Taiwanese investors can pay attention to the following points:

• Declining U.S. Treasury yields: If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to fall, it will support the Taiwan dollar exchange rate, and the New Taiwan dollar may appreciate further.
• Deflation expectations: Wood's analogy to the "Industrial Revolution period" points to technology-driven cost reductions—AI investment boosts productivity, naturally lowering prices.
• Cryptocurrency linkage: ARK Invest bought nearly $18 million worth of Circle stock on the same day, showing that Wood remains actively allocating to cryptocurrency-related assets.

Overall, Wood's core view can be summarized as: Don't just look at a single data point; use multi-dimensional cross-verification—which aligns with Warsh's direction for reforming the Fed.