Anyone who tells you now that storage will always be in short supply is either stupid or malicious!

Let me say first: I'm not denying that HBM is in short supply now, nor that the AI storage cycle is really strong.

But the three words **"always short"** are the old script that the capital market has used for twenty years.

First, don't worship barriers.

It's true that the HBM entry barrier is high, and currently only Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung can produce it.

But no matter how great it is, it's still manufacturing at its core.

If profits are high enough, capital will dare to pour money into expanding capacity.

A shortage today doesn't mean it will still be short three years later.

In this world, there is no capacity that capital cannot fill.

Second, when prices rise to the end, someone will stop paying.

Microsoft and Google buy HBM — do you think they print their own money?

In the end, they raise AI membership fees, cloud service prices, and software subscriptions.

The higher the prices rise, the slower the demand becomes.

Once demand slows, the first thing tech giants do is cut CapEx.

Every cycle plays out exactly like this.

Third, this script has fooled retail investors too many times.

During the internet era, they said storage would never be enough.

During the new energy era, they said lithium mines would never be in short supply.

What happened in the end?

Overcapacity still happened, prices still got cut in half.

Every time, it's the same sentence:

This time is different.

But the candlestick charts all look the same.

Fourth, AI is indeed different, but the cycle hasn't changed.

HBM handles hot data, and demand is more rigid than before — I admit that.

But rigid demand does not equal perpetual shortage.

As long as there is profit, capital will frantically expand production, and technology will frantically iterate.

If you think it will always be short today, looking back a few years later, it could be another round of overcapacity.

So remember one sentence.

The AI cycle can last longer, and HBM can be more expensive.

But the phrase "always short" — just listen to it and move on.

Capital loves to talk about "forever," and the market loves to slap "forever" in the face.