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Optical chips under the spotlight: capacity is still in short supply—so why is the narrative starting to loosen?

SnapshotLaborer
The global optical communication chipset market is projected to exceed $11 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 17% from 2025 to 2030. Domestic substitution has shifted from "optional" to "mandatory"—the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has for the first time positioned high-speed optical modules as "core underlying hardware for AI computing power and 6G," setting a hard target of 45% self-sufficiency for high-end 200G EML optical chips by 2028. The supply-demand gap for indium phosphide substrates exceeds 70%, with over 90% of global production capacity monopolized by three Japanese and American companies, while the domestic localization rate of 6-inch InP substrates is less than 5%. Silicon photonics technology will for the first time capture over 50% of the optical module market in 2026, and thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) has entered its first year of industrialization.
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