Nonfarm Payrolls Disappoint, BTC Breaks Through 61K, ETH Reaches 1700——How Macro 'Bad News' Turns into Crypto 'Good News'?

June nonfarm payrolls added only 57k jobs, less than half the market expectation of 115k, and the May figure was revised down from 172k to 129k. As soon as the data was released, the probability of a rate hike this month was directly reduced from about 33% to 20%. The dollar experienced its biggest sell-off in two weeks, falling as much as 0.87% intraday. The macro 'bad news' became 'good news' for risk assets.

BTC: Breaks 61K, but ETF Flows Remain Uncertain

BTC rose 2.4%, breaking through $61k, and briefly approached $62k intraday. It gained over 5% in two trading days, the best two-day performance since late February.

But there is another side: On Wednesday, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $294 million, and total outflows in June amounted to about $4.5 billion, the worst month on record. Fidelity's single-day inflow of $166 million was offset by outflows from other products. Institutional demand has not yet fully confirmed a rebound.

Technically, the area around $62,000, where the 20-day EMA and Parabolic SAR align, is a dense resistance zone. If it holds above 62,000, there is a chance to test 66,200; if rejected, it may retest 58,115.

ETH: More Elastic, but Higher Short Squeeze Component

ETH rose 5.89%, breaking through $1,700. Its elasticity is significantly greater than BTC, driven by two factors: first, $92.4 million in ETH short positions were liquidated, forming a classic short squeeze; second, the macro liquidity expectations improved due to the nonfarm payrolls.

A single ETH liquidation of $18.2 million on Hyperliquid became the largest single liquidation on the entire network. This indicates that short covering plays a significant role in ETH's current rebound.

But ETH's concerns are equally clear: spot Ethereum ETFs are still seeing net outflows, and institutions' willingness to allocate to ETH is weaker than to BTC. Short-term overbought signals have already appeared, and there is a need for a pullback near $1,725.

Summary: Macro Logic Holds, but Structural Divergence Remains

The nonfarm payroll data did change rate hike expectations: short-term Treasury yields declined, the dollar weakened, and liquidity expectations improved. This macro logic is positive for both BTC and ETH.

But two risks are worth noting: first, ETF flows have not yet formed a sustained return, institutions are still watching; second, the short squeeze component in ETH's rebound is large, and once short covering ends, sustainability is questionable.

Short-term direction leans bullish, but position management remains the bottom line — after all, the levels of 58,000 and 1,550 are not far from current prices.
$BTC $ETH #ETH突破1700