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The overall performance of the U.S. stock market yesterday was quite poor, with the semiconductor sector plunging 6%, which I think exceeded most people's expectations. Watching most of this year's profits slip away, it would be a lie to say I wasn't upset—I almost couldn't sleep well.
I'm not sure how much longer this deleveraging in semiconductors will last. From a short-term technical perspective, the support from the 50/60-day EMA for the SOXX semiconductor index is crucial, with the price range between 528 and 544. As long as it holds, there shouldn't be major issues, and the upward structure remains intact.
Additionally, there's the big tech capital expenditure I've mentioned many times before—this is the lifeline of the AI bull market. We'll have to wait at most until the big tech earnings season, about 20 days from now, for the answers.
Just now, SemiAnalysis released a report clearly stating that the market's interpretation of Meta cutting capital expenditures is wrong. It believes Meta's data center and computing power procurement will continue to accelerate, and by 2027, the numbers will be astonishingly high.
So far, we haven't seen any signs of big tech cutting capital expenditures—everything stems from market anxiety.
At its core, it's still because semiconductor trading has become too crowded. When prices rise too much, deleveraging is inevitable—it's a natural market law, and even giants like Micron and SanDisk can't avoid it.
I'm more inclined to hold my semiconductor positions until the earnings season. Don't easily cut losses, but also make sure to manage your positions well. Hanging in there is the top priority.