Rivian Raises Its Full-Year Delivery Forecast. Here’s Why the Stock Is Soaring.

Electric vehicle (EV) company Rivian’s (RIVN +8.41%)stock accelerated impressively following its latest news about deliveries on Thursday. That all-important auto industry metric was significantly higher than expected, prompting the company to raise its full-year guidance. Investors rewarded this by pushing the shares up by more than 8% that trading session.

Delivering the goods

That morning, Rivian provided the delivery and production figures for its just-concluded second quarter. The period saw the EV company produce 12,613 vehicles, with deliveries totaling 12,194. The latter figure topped the company’s own forecast — actually, a better term might be “crushed,” as it was guiding for 9,000 to 11,000 for the period. It was also well above the second quarter 2025 number of 10,661 and first quarter 2026’s 10,365.

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Management attributed this far better-than-expected result to the uptake of the EDV line of delivery vehicles, as well as demand for the R1 pickups and large SUVs. It also benefited from the rollout of the R2, a crossover SUV it started shipping in June.

With these rather stiff tailwinds at its back, Rivian cranked its full-year 2026 delivery guidance higher. It now anticipates shipping 65,000 to 70,000 units, notably up from the previous estimate of 62,000 to 67,000.

In its update, the company also set a date for the release of that quarter’s financial results. This is slated for Thursday, July 30, after market close.

Rivian’s impressive, guidance-trouncing performance wasn’t an isolated occurrence in the EV sphere. Also on Thursday, **Tesla **(TSLA 7.35%) , for one, opened the hood on its own second-quarter production and delivery figures. It revealed that its total deliveries were 480,126. Unlike Rivian, Tesla doesn’t provide guidance on this metric; still, for the quarter, it handily beat the consensus analyst estimate of 396,466, per data compiled by Bloomberg.

As for comparisons to previous periods, Tesla’s deliveries for the second quarter of 2025 were 384,122, and for the first quarter of this year, 358,023.

Oil shock

Some might think these estimates-beating numbers herald a recovery for the broader EV industry, which has had its struggles this year.

It’s worth bearing in mind, though, that a key reason why deliveries were up more than anticipated is the surge in gasoline prices on the back of the Iran war (which, for obvious reasons, hiked the price of crude oil significantly). A major selling point for EVs has always been their cost-effectiveness in operation compared with traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) models. Assuming the conflict ever ends with a meaningful settlement, prices at the pump should start declining meaningfully.

While that should negatively affect the entire EV space, Rivian still has strong momentum pushing it forward. In the coming years, it will expand its manufacturing footprint significantly, with a factory in Georgia currently under construction aided by a downsized but still substantial low-interest $4.5 billion loan from the Department of Energy (DOE). It still produces its vehicles at a single Illinois facility.

The company also clearly has a compelling new(ish) product with the two EDV models, selling into a niche that should only grow in a world becoming ever more accustomed to quick deliveries from merchants. And while it’s too soon to gauge how much of a hit the R2 will be with consumers, it’s an attractively-priced model that elegantly complements the larger and more expensive R1 SUVs in the lineup.

Personally, I remain somewhat wary of the wider EV sector, as I think its once-explosive growth story has largely played out. But for those who are more bullish on the technology, Rivian is a suitable investment. I do have to caution that the auto industry in general is capital-intensive (and therefore frequently unprofitable), always vulnerable to swings in consumer taste, and cyclical with the broader economy.