7.3 SOL: High elasticity leads the mainstream, the previous high level determines the continuation of the rebound

$SOL
Entry: Short near 81.5-82.5, stop loss at 83.5, target 79-77

Overnight non-farm payroll data was released, and the risk appetite of the entire market recovered. SOL took the opportunity to stage an oversold rebound, surging from a low of 72 to 82.79, with a short-term rebound of more than 14%, showing its high elasticity. However, after the surge, bullish momentum significantly weakened, and the price entered a consolidation range around 80.

The core driver of this rally is exactly the same as the broader market — the US June non-farm payrolls fell well below expectations, the expectation of Fed rate hikes quickly cooled, the US dollar and US Treasuries weakened simultaneously, driving a collective rebound in risk assets across the market. SOL, as a typical high-elasticity asset, followed the recovery.

It did not show a fundamental turning point on its own: There has been no sustained return signal from spot ETF fund flows, no new positive developments in on-chain ecosystem or staking data, and no independent narrative to support a trend-driven rally.

In essence, it is short-covering after oversold + bottom-fishing capital speculation. The core contradiction of medium-term capital outflows and insufficient market increment has not been resolved. A single data point cannot reverse the medium-term weakness, and the sustainability of the rebound still needs to be tested.#非农爆冷打压加息预期