$BTC Using Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Analysis, Order Flow, and Price Action to Analyze BTC Short-Term Trends

‌I. Dow Theory
Major Trend (1-hour level): The mid-term downtrend from the June 3 high of 67,410 is very clear. The price has fallen from 67,410, with several rebounds (June 15 rebound to 67,254, June 22 rebound to 65,549) failing to break the previous highs, forming a typical "lower highs" bearish arrangement. After the June 22 high of 65,549, bears resumed pressure, leading to a sharp drop to 58,026 on June 25, followed by some consolidation but a new low of 57,720 on July 1, a decline of about 9,690. The major trend is still deeply bearish, but strong buying support appears near 57,700.
Short-term Trend (15-minute level): The short-term downtrend from the June 22 high of 65,549 is undergoing a key turning point. Short-term highs have moved down from 65,549 (6-22 14:00) to 64,697 (6-22 01:00), 62,128 (7-02 14:15), 61,881 (7-02 17:15), and short-term lows have moved down from 58,026 (6-25 13:00) to 57,720 (7-01 01:00). On July 1, there was a sign of "higher lows" (the low of 58,255 on 7-01 12:00 was higher than 57,720 on 7-01 01:00), and the rebound touched 61,881, shifting the short-term trend from "steep decline" to "consolidation bottoming."
Dow Conclusion: The major trend is still deeply bearish, but downward momentum has significantly weakened. The short-term trend is entering a consolidation bottoming phase. 57,700–58,000 is a short-term life-or-death line; if lost, it opens downside space to 55,000–53,000; if it can firmly hold above 61,500 and break 62,500, the short-term downtrend will be confirmed as reversed, with a rebound target of 64,000–65,500.
II. Chan Theory
Fractal Structure: On the 15-minute level, the chart marks several valid top and bottom fractals.
Top Fractals: Appear at 65,549 (June 22 14:00), 64,697 (June 22 01:00), 62,128 (July 2 14:15), 61,881 (July 2 17:15), etc. The top fractals show a significant downward shift, indicating bearish forces still dominate.
Bottom Fractals: Appear at 58,026 (June 25 13:00), 58,255 (July 1 12:00), 57,720 (July 1 01:00), 59,522 (July 2 00:30), 60,020 (July 2 07:45), etc. Bottom fractals show a significant upward shift on July 1, moving from 57,720 to the 58,255 range, indicating that bullish buying willingness is recovering.
Strokes (Bi) and Line Segments: From the top fractal at 65,549 to the bottom fractal at 57,720 (July 1 01:00), a very strong downward stroke formed, with a drop of about 7,829, extremely strong. Then, from the bottom fractal at 57,720 to the top fractal at 61,881 (July 2 17:15), an upward stroke formed, with a rise of about 4,161, relatively strong. Subsequently, from the top fractal at 61,881 to the bottom fractal at 61,090 (July 2 16:15), a downward stroke formed, with a drop of only 791, very weak and without a new low, indicating a clear exhaustion of bearish forces. Currently, a new upward stroke is forming from the bottom fractal at 61,090.
Central Hub Area: In the 62,000–64,000 range, the K-lines from June 22–24 are densely intertwined, forming a downward central hub in Chan theory, and the price has completely broken below the lower edge of this hub, entering an accelerated decline phase after breaking the hub. In the 58,000–61,500 range, K-lines from June 25 to July 2 are densely intertwined, forming a new bottoming central hub. The current price of 61,240 is near the upper edge of this hub, in a testing phase for an upward breakout of the hub.
Chan Conclusion: The downward stroke was extremely strong (-7,829), but an upward stroke has emerged (+4,161), and the latest downward stroke showed clear exhaustion (-791). Currently, it is in the extension phase of the upward stroke after the downward stroke ended. Short-term focus is on whether an effective top fractal forms near 61,881; if not, the upward stroke will extend, targeting 62,500–64,000; if 60,500 is lost and 60,000 is broken, the downward stroke will restart.
III. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the wave structure at the 1-hour level, the trend from the June 3 high of 67,410 is divided into waves, showing a typical "completed five-wave decline + ABC rebound germination" structure:
Wave 1 (Sharp Drop): From 67,410 to a sharp drop to 63,250 (June 4), amplitude about -4,160.
Wave 2 (Rebound): Rebound from 63,250 to 67,254 (June 15), amplitude about +4,004. Wave 2 rebound was very strong, almost fully retracing Wave 1's decline, forming a typical "flat" correction.
Wave 3 (Main Down Wave): Sharp drop from 67,254 to 58,026 (June 25), amplitude about -9,228. This was the most destructive main down wave.
Wave 4 (Rebound): Rebound from 58,026 to 65,549 (June 22), amplitude about +7,523. Wave 4 rebound was relatively strong but failed to break the Wave 2 high.
Wave 5 (Terminal Sharp Drop): Sharp drop from 65,549 to 57,720 (July 1), amplitude about -7,829. Wave 5 amplitude was about 0.85 times Wave 3, a typical terminal wave.
Wave A (Rebound): Rebound from 57,720 to 61,881 (July 2), amplitude about +4,161. Wave A rebound was relatively strong, reaching the 0.5 retracement level of Wave 5's decline (about 61,635).
Wave B (Pullback): Pullback from 61,881 to 61,090 (July 2 16:15), amplitude about -791. Wave B pullback was very shallow, retracing only 19% of Wave A, indicating that bullish strength is recovering.
Wave C (Expected): If Wave B ends in the 60,500–61,000 range, Wave C targets roughly 62,500–63,000 if equal to Wave A; if Wave C is 1.618 times Wave A, targets about 64,500–65,000.
Wave Conclusion: Currently, the five-wave decline is complete, with ABC rebound in the phase where Wave A has ended and Wave B is in a shallow correction. A shallow Wave B is a positive signal; if Wave B does not break below 60,500, Wave C upward is highly probable. If Wave C can break 62,500 and continue upward, the rebound targets 64,500–65,000; if Wave B breaks below 57,720, the five-wave decline extends, targeting 55,000–53,000.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall Volume-Price Characteristics: During the sharp drop on June 25, there was a very clear increase in volume, with panic selling concentrated. During the consolidation period from June 30 to July 1, volume significantly shrank, indicating bearish selling pressure was weakening. During the rebound after July 1, volume increased moderately, showing a positive volume-price combination of "sharp drop with high volume + bottoming with low volume + rebound with moderate volume."
Key Volume-Price Points:
At 13:00 on June 25, a bearish candle with high volume appeared (volume about 1.67 billion), dropping sharply from 60,500 to 58,026, with a body of about 2,474, confirming panic selling concentration, forming a phase bottom.
At 14:00 on June 25, a huge volume lower shadow appeared (volume about 0.55 billion), rebounding from 58,026 to 59,200, with a lower shadow of about 1,174, confirming strong buying support near 58,000.
At 01:00 on July 1, a bearish candle with high volume appeared (volume about 1.07 billion), dropping from 59,500 to 57,720, with a body of about 1,780, but quickly rebounded, forming a "bear trap."
At 12:00 on July 1, a bullish candle with high volume appeared (volume about 0.86 billion), surging from 58,255 to 60,444, with a body of about 2,189, confirming that bulls began to counterattack.
At 14:00 on July 2, a bullish candle with high volume appeared (volume about 0.75 billion), rising from 61,335 to 62,128, with a body of about 793, confirming continued bullish strength.
At 17:15 on July 2, a bullish candle with high volume appeared (volume about 0.57 billion), rising from 61,697 to 61,881, showing light selling pressure near 61,800.
Last 10 15-minute K-lines: From 61,502, the price consolidated down to 61,240, with volume continuing to shrink, indicating the market is waiting for direction in the 61,000–61,500 range.
Volume-Price Conclusion: After the sharp drop from June 25 to July 1 with huge volume, overall volume shrank, showing that panic selling has been fully released. The rebound with moderate volume and pullback with extremely low volume are positive volume-price signals. Key observation point: if a breakout with high volume occurs at 62,000–62,500, Wave C is confirmed to be unfolding; if the price breaks below 60,000 with increased volume again, the five-wave decline extends.
V. Order Flow
Volume Profile: The point of control (POC) over the last 5 days is at 60,074. This is the area with the highest trading activity between buyers and sellers, forming the most important value area hub. The current price of 61,240 is about 1,166 above the POC, in a premium position above the value area.
Current Position Analysis: The price at 61,240 is above the POC of 60,074, outside the upper edge of the Value Area (58,281–60,522). In order flow theory, a price breaking above the upper edge of the Value Area means that bulls temporarily have the advantage. The current price is in a short-term premium area above the Value Area, requiring volume confirmation to validate the breakout effectiveness.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
62,000–64,000: Upper resistance HVN (June 22–24 high volume zone, current strong resistance)
59,000–61,000: Core support HVN (June 30 to July 2 high volume zone, current support)
57,700–58,500: Extreme support HVN (high volume buying area after the July 1 sharp drop)
64,500–66,000: Strong resistance HVN (June 15–20 high volume zone)
Delta Analysis: Delta estimates show that during the sharp drop on July 1 at 01:00, Delta turned sharply negative (at the -4 billion level), confirming active selling dominance. During the rebound on July 1 at 12:00, Delta quickly turned positive (at the +2.5 billion level), confirming active buying inflow near 58,000. During the counterattack on July 2 at 14:00, Delta turned sharply positive again (at the +2 billion level), confirming active bullish offense. Currently, the Delta MA12 has recovered from deeply negative territory to positive territory (at the +0.5 billion level), showing that buying power is recovering and selling power has significantly weakened.
Order Flow Conclusion: The price has broken above the POC of 60,074 and the upper edge of the Value Area at 60,522, with bulls having a short-term advantage. Above, 62,000–62,500 and 64,000–65,000 are two key HVN resistance levels. If Delta continues to turn positive and break with volume at these levels, an upward move to 64,500 is likely; if Delta turns deeply negative again and the price breaks below 60,000, the five-wave decline extends.
VI. Price Action
Support and Resistance Levels:
Strong Resistance: 67,410 (phase high), 67,254 (June 15 second high), 65,549 (June 22 rebound high)
Key Resistance: 64,000 (round number), 62,500 (June 24 high), 61,881 (July 2 rebound high), 61,000 (round number)
Key Support: 60,500 (July 2 consolidation lower edge), 60,000 (round number), 59,522 (July 2 low), 58,255 (July 1 low), 57,720 (July 1 sharp drop low)
Candlestick Patterns:
At 01:00 on July 1, a large bearish candle with a very long lower shadow appeared (body about -1,780, lower shadow about 1,400), dropping from 59,500 to 57,720 and rebounding to 59,100, forming a "hammer" bottom pattern.
At 12:00 on July 1, a large bullish candle with a long lower shadow appeared (body about 2,189), surging from 58,255 to 60,444, forming a "bullish engulfing" pattern.
At 14:00 on July 2, a bullish candle with a short upper shadow appeared (body about 793), rising from 61,335 to 62,128, showing continued bullish strength.
At 17:15 on July 2, a bullish candle with high volume appeared (body about 184), rising from 61,697 to 61,881, showing light selling pressure near 61,800.
Trend Structure:
Short-term: The lower trendline of the descending channel was briefly broken and then recovered (a V-shaped rebound after piercing the 58,000 lower trendline on July 1), and a new descending channel is being corrected.
Medium-term: The descending trendline from the June 3 high of 67,410 remains valid, and the price has not yet broken this trendline.
Price Action Conclusion: In the short term, the market is in a consolidation bottoming zone after the sharp drop. 60,000 is a short-term bullish defense line, and 61,881 is the bull-bear watershed: breaking above confirms Wave C rebound, targeting 62,500–64,000; losing it leads to a retest of the 59,500–58,500 range.
Comprehensive Analysis
Dow Theory signals that the major trend is still deeply bearish but downward momentum has significantly weakened, with the short-term trend entering consolidation bottoming, key levels at 61,881 (up) and 60,000 (down). Chan Theory shows that the downward stroke was extremely strong (-7,829) but the latest downward stroke clearly exhausted (-791), currently in the extension phase of an upward stroke. Elliott Wave Theory confirms a completed five-wave decline with ABC rebound where Wave A ended (+4,161) and Wave B shallow correction (-791), Wave C targeting 62,500–64,500. Volume-Price Analysis shows a positive combination of "sharp drop with high volume + bottoming with low volume + rebound with moderate volume." Order Flow indicates POC at 60,074, price breaking above the Value Area upper edge, and Delta MA12 recovering from deeply negative to positive territory. Price Action shows dual bottom patterns of "hammer" and "bullish engulfing," with short-term bullish bias but heavy resistance at 61,881.
Short-Term Strategy Suggestions:
Bullish Scenario: If the price shows a low-volume stabilization + bottom fractal + Delta turning positive near 60,500–61,000, consider going long, target 61,881 → 62,500, stop loss at 59,800.
Bearish Scenario: If a top fractal appears near 61,881–62,500 accompanied by a high-volume decline, confirming Wave B end + Wave C failure, consider short-term short, target 60,500 → 59,500, stop loss at 62,800.
Current State: At 61,240, it is near the upper edge of the consolidation bottoming zone, with short-term bulls slightly dominant. It is recommended to wait for a breakout above 61,881 to confirm Wave C before chasing long, or wait for a pullback to 60,500–60,800 to confirm support before considering long positions.