Everyone who tells you right now that there will always be a shortage of storage is either stupid or malicious!

Let me say this first: I’m not denying that HBM is short right now, and I’m not denying that this AI storage round is truly intense.

But the three words **“always short”** are just an old script the capital markets have been running for twenty years.

First, don’t worship barriers.

The HBM threshold is indeed high. And today, only Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung can make it.

But even if it’s impressive, at its core it’s still manufacturing.

When profits are high enough, capital dares to spend money to expand capacity.

Being scarce today doesn’t mean it will still be scarce three years from now.

In this world, there is no production capacity that capital can’t fill.

Second, prices rising—eventually, someone won’t go along with it.

If Microsoft and Google are buying HBM, are they just printing money?

In the end, the price increase still shows up in AI memberships, cloud services, and software subscriptions.

The higher the prices go, the slower demand becomes.

Once demand slows down, the very first thing tech giants do is cut CapEx.

Every cycle plays out this way.

Third, this script has tricked retail investors too many times.

Back in the internet era, they said storage would never be enough.

In the new energy era, they said lithium mines would never be in shortage.

So what happened in the end?

Overcapacity was still overcapacity, and it was still getting **slashed—cut in half**.

Every time it comes down to one line:

“This time is different.”

And the result? The candlestick charts all look the same.

Fourth, AI is genuinely different, but the cycle hasn’t changed.

HBM is hot data, and demand is more urgent than before—I’ll admit that.

But urgent demand doesn’t equal permanent shortages.

As long as there’s money to be made, capital will go on a furious capacity expansion, and technology will go on a furious pace of iteration.

If you think there will always be a shortage today, then look back a few years later—you’ll likely find it’s another new wave of overcapacity.

So remember this one thing:

The AI cycle can be longer, and HBM can be more expensive.

But those three words—**“always short”**—just listen to them and move on.

Capital loves talking about “forever,” and the market loves slapping “forever” in the face.