Yang Guang bit | July 3 $BTC One-sided short strategy, trend fully grasped

Core Conclusion
BTC's current rally is merely an oversold rebound, with no reversal in the larger bearish trend. The previous high of 62186 is a clear resistance, long momentum has been fully exhausted, and the rebound is entirely driven by passive short covering, with no incremental capital stepping in. The current level is a bull trap high during the downtrend, and it will return to the downward channel.
Today's Strategy
Entry: 62000-62200 range
Stop loss set above 62600,
Take profit in tiers
First target for short: 60800-61000
Second target for short: 60000-60200
Breakdown add position: below 59000
Market Logic Breakdown
1. News Sentiment: The bearish foundation is intact, the rebound lacks sustainability
On the macro level, the Fed's hawkish tone remains unchanged, the net outflow pattern of BTC spot ETF funds has not been completely reversed, and there is no substantial reversal-level catalyst in the market. The current rebound is merely a marginal sentiment repair, lacking long-term fundamental support. After the non-farm payroll data is released, it is likely to come under pressure again. The rebound is limited in height, so do not blindly expect a reversal.
2. Capital Flow: Rebound driven by short covering, no incremental buying support
This rally is entirely driven by concentrated short covering, with no institutional-level incremental capital entering the spot market for bottom-fishing, making the rebound's foundation weak. In the derivatives market, the recovery of bullish sentiment is more emotional, with limited growth in open interest. Most funds are engaged in short-term gambling. Once the covering momentum is exhausted, prices will immediately return to the downtrend.$BTC ‌#非农爆冷打压加息预期