Today's Core Crypto News

1. Macro Heavyweight: US Non-Farm Payrolls Miss Expectations, Short-Term Rally in Crypto Market

Non-farm payroll data for June released last night significantly missed expectations, with downward revisions in employment numbers. The market immediately lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike in July. The US dollar index and Treasury yields simultaneously declined, risk assets collectively rebounded, and Bitcoin quickly rose from around $59,000 to the intraday high of $62,200.

Market interpretation: The short-term easing expectations have boosted sentiment, but institutions generally view this as only a pulse-driven rally, as the medium- to long-term logic of high interest rate suppression remains unchanged.

2. Institutional Downgrade: Citigroup Sharply Cuts Bitcoin Year-End Price Target

On July 1st, Citigroup released a research report lowering its Bitcoin target price for the next 12 months from $112,000 to $82,000; Ethereum was similarly downgraded to $2,240. Core logic: The AI sector continues to siphon market capital, the Fed delays rate cuts, and spot ETFs see persistent capital outflows.

3. CZ Explains the Core Logic Behind the Current Crypto Decline

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, in a recent exclusive interview, summarized three main causes of the decline:

1. The AI industry is absorbing global speculative capital, continuously draining liquidity from the crypto sector;
2. The Fed maintains high interest rates, reducing the appeal of non-yielding crypto assets;
3. Profit-taking by bull market participants in the first half of the year is concentrated, and selling pressure on altcoins continues to be released.

4. Market Capital Flows: ETF Redemptions Continue, Liquidation Levels Ease

The US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net redemptions for several consecutive days, with institutional capital continuing to flow out. During yesterday's rebound, long positions were liquidated and short positions saw minor stop-losses, bringing the 24-hour total liquidation across the network down to $120 million, a significant reduction compared to the peak liquidation during the late June crash.

5. Secondary Industry News

1. The Ethereum spot ETF is still in the SEC review process, with no near-term launch expectations; ETH is trading in sync with BTC;
2. AI-themed tokens have strengthened slightly, with Worldcoin and AI-related public chain tokens outperforming mainstream coins;
3. Multiple investment banks have highlighted the key support range of $55,000-$59,000; if broken, a deeper correction could follow.

II. Bitcoin (BTC) Real-Time Trend (As of 8:30 AM on July 3rd)

Current Price

BTC/USDT is currently around $61,400, in a consolidation and recovery phase following the positive non-farm data.

Key Short-Term Levels

1. Support Levels

- Near-term weak support: $60,900, $60,500 (overnight retracement lows)
- Strong support: $60,000 round number; the key pivot for this rebound is $59,200; losing it would signal the end of the rebound

2. Resistance Levels

- First resistance: $61,800, $62,200 (intraday highs with heavy selling pressure)
- Medium-term strong resistance: $62,800, $63,500; only a firm hold above $63,500 would open a new upward leg

Market Structure Assessment

1. Short-term: Range-bound with a bullish tilt; sentiment repair from the non-farm data; intraday trading range likely within $60,400-$62,200;
2. Medium-term: The downtrend has not been reversed; this rebound is just a correction within the decline; the two major bearish factors—institutional capital outflow and high interest rates—remain;
3. Sentiment indicator: The Fear & Greed Index is at 22, still in the extreme fear zone, indicating weak market conviction for bottom-fishing.

Key Intraday Observations

- Holding above $60,500 support would keep the short-term bullish momentum intact;
- A decisive break below $59,200 would signal the end of the rebound, returning to the downward channel, with targets at $58,500 and $55,000 below;
- A volume-driven break and hold above $62,200 could lead to testing the $62,800-$63,500 resistance zone.

III. Key Events to Monitor Going Forward

1. This week, multiple Fed officials are scheduled to speak; any hawkish comments could weigh on crypto prices;
2. The US July CPI inflation data, which will determine the timeline for second-half rate cuts;
3. Daily Bitcoin spot ETF capital inflow/outflow data;
4. The breakout direction for the two key ranges: $59,200 and $63,500.
$BTC ‌