7.3 Bitcoin: Non-farm payrolls surprise surge of 4000 points, is the 620 level a continuation or a top?

$BTC
Short entry: near 618-621, stop loss 625, target 610-600
Long entry: near 608-610, stop loss 603, target 620-630

Last night's June non-farm payroll data was released, directly creating a rebound in the sluggish market. New jobs added were only 57k, not even half of market expectations. The labor market cooling was confirmed, the dollar index plunged below the 101 level, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in July hit rock bottom. Bitcoin rode the wind from around 59,000 all the way up, reaching a high of 62,180, with a single-day rebound of over 4,000 points. The bulls finally got some relief.

The core logic of this rise is that the weaker-than-expected non-farm data boosted the dovish expectation of 'the Fed delaying rate hikes'. It is a typical oversold rebound driven by data catalysts, not a trend reversal.

Be clear: the core medium-term pressure has not disappeared — spot ETFs continue to see fund outflows, institutional funds are generally still exiting, and the weak pattern of a 20% drop in June has not fundamentally changed. Don't shout that the bull market is back just because of one green candle. The sustainability of the rebound still needs confirmation from volume and fund flow conditions.
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