Xing Ge Says Crypto 0703 $BTC Today's Idea

Entry timing: 61900-62300, stop loss 62800
Take profit targets:
First target: 60500
Second target: 59000
News
Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed: Yesterday's NFP surprised to the downside at only 57k, but inflation remains sticky, Fed officials are hawkish, rate cut expectations are delayed, and tightening liquidity expectations are weighing on crypto prices.
Geopolitical situation: The situation in the Middle East appears tense, but shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, the risk premium from safe-haven sentiment is fading, and it has not provided substantial support for BTC.
Jin10 Data: The US dollar index strengthened on hawkish expectations, weighing on risk assets; ETF inflows slowed, and there are signs of distribution by large players above 62000.
Reason
Technical: The 1-hour level rebounded to the 61000+ area, with a gain of over 5% but volume did not effectively increase, indicating a low-volume fake breakout; a divergence between price and volume appeared at the 15-minute level, with early signs of a top.
Order book language: The 62000 round number above and the 62300 previous dense trading area have huge resistance from trapped longs. The rebound reached this area, bulls are exhausted, the risk-reward ratio is excellent, suitable for shorting on rallies.
Logical resonance: The stagflation pattern of weak NFP + strong inflation, combined with the fading of geopolitical risk premium, creates a confluence of macro and technical factors. The larger trend remains bearish, and any rebound is a chance to short.
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