Trading strategy: Data bullish for crypto, short-term long, long-term short.

We judge that the Fed will neither raise nor cut interest rates in 2026, and rates will remain unchanged throughout the year! This non-farm payroll increase of 57k significantly missed expectations, but there has not been consecutive months of large negative growth or a rapid surge in the unemployment rate. Wash will not cut interest rates based solely on a single month of weak employment; continuous data is needed to confirm that the labor market is persistently cooling. Non-farm: Hourly wage year-on-year 3.5%, slightly up, month-on-month 0.3% unchanged. With hourly wage year-on-year above 3.2%, it is difficult for inflation to return to 2%. Wages are the foundation of service sector inflation, and inflation will not come down in the short term. Therefore, we characterize this rally as a "data-driven technical rebound," not a reversal. After the rebound peaks, it will still decline. The Fed will not lower interest rates in the second half of the year, and it is still shrinking its balance sheet, so liquidity has not improved!