Bitcoin surges to $62.0k, Ethereum blasts up 6%—squeezing the short “army” until shorts become the worst losers—$458 million liquidated in a single day.

On the morning of July 3rd, the crypto market rebounded broadly. Ethereum surged from a 24-hour low of $1,605 to $1,725, currently at $1,706, up 6.26% in a single day, leading the market; Bitcoin rallied from yesterday's low of $59,776 to $61,507, a gain of 2.86%. Driven by a short squeeze, total market liquidations over 24 hours reached $458 million, with shorts accounting for the majority; shorts were liquidated for $174 million in the past 12 hours. Although the Fear & Greed Index has recovered to 21, it remains in 'Extreme Fear,' showing a clear divergence between sentiment and price. (Previous Recap: Bitcoin Strongly Rebounds to Nearly $61k! Shorts Liquidated for $450 Million, Panic Index Still at 19) (Background Supplement: Citigroup Cuts Bitcoin Target Price Again to $82k: ETF Net Inflow Assumption Reset to Zero, Funds Shift to AI)

Table of Contents

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• Shorts Savaged: 24-Hour Liquidations $458 Million, Shorts Are the Biggest Losers
• Why the Rise? Cooling Inflation + U.S.-Iran Talks, But ETF Funds Still Bleeding
• Altcoins Surge: SOL Hit 14-Day High Yesterday, XRP Up 3.5%
• Sentiment Still in the Abyss, Dow at Record High but Nasdaq Falls

Ethereum exploded. This morning (3rd), ETH surged from a 24-hour low of $1,605 to an intraday high of $1,725, and as of 09:11 Taipei time is at $1,706, a daily gain of +6.26%, leading the major coins. Bitcoin also strengthened, rallying from yesterday's low of $59,776 to the current price of $61,507, a gain of +2.86%, successfully reclaiming the $61k level. The entire market seemed to have its foot on the accelerator, and shorts became the first victims.

Shorts Savaged: 24-Hour Liquidations $458 Million, Shorts Are the Biggest Losers

The structure of this rebound is clear: it's a short squeeze.

According to CoinGlass data, total market liquidations over the past 24 hours reached $458 million (458.65M USD); focusing on the past 12 hours, liquidations were $283 million, of which shorts were liquidated for $174 million, while longs were only $109 million. Shorts were the main victims; those who were slow were all caught in the rebound. Extending to 24 hours, a total of 99,717 people were liquidated across the network, with short liquidations at $299 million, far exceeding longs' $159 million; the single largest liquidation came from an ETH-USD order on Hyperliquid, amounting to $18.2 million.

Why the Rise? Cooling Inflation + U.S.-Iran Talks, But ETF Funds Still Bleeding

The trigger for this rebound points to macro factors. Market expectations for inflation are gradually cooling, coupled with progress in indirect U.S.-Iran talks, oil prices falling in tandem, and risk appetite improving, driving risk assets like crypto higher.

However, there is a key contradiction to highlight: Prices are rebounding, but fund flows remain a headwind. Spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows in June reached $4.06 billion, setting a monthly record; Ethereum ETF also saw consecutive days of net outflows, with institutional funds not yet returning. Citigroup on July 1 cut its Bitcoin year-end target price for the second time, from the previous $112k to $82k, citing the reason that ETF net inflows have reset to zero and market funds are beginning to shift to the AI sector.

The biggest question going forward lies with the Fed. The July 28-29 FOMC is approaching, and market expectations for rate cuts this year have narrowed significantly. Prediction market Kalshi shows that the probability of 'zero rate cuts in 2026' has risen to about 40%. This is the most critical variable for whether the rally can continue.

ETH's leadership this time also has its structural narrative: the Glamsterdam upgrade is expected to land in the second half of 2026, with the testnet scheduled for July-August; plus BlackRock's Ethereum ETF continues to strengthen institutional confidence. Although fund flows haven't materialized, the narrative is already moving ahead.

Altcoins Surge: SOL Hit 14-Day High Yesterday, XRP Up 3.5%

Major altcoins are also rising in tandem. SOL is currently at $81.07, up +4.69%, and yesterday (7/2) briefly touched a near 14-day high of $82.2, with a 24-hour range of low $77.41 and high $82.78; XRP is at $1.087, up +3.57%, hitting an intraday high of $1.112.

Sentiment Still in the Abyss, Dow at Record High but Nasdaq Falls

Interestingly, despite the rally, market sentiment remains prostrate. The Fear & Greed Index today reads 21, 'Extreme Fear', though it has gradually recovered from yesterday's 19 and last week's 13, it is still deep in panic territory. Price is moving, but sentiment is not keeping up. This divergence is often the fuel for the rally, but could also be a signal that it could fizzle out at any time.

U.S. stocks also showed divergence at yesterday's (2nd) close: the Dow rose +1.07% to a record high, but the Nasdaq 100 fell -1.61%, with tech stocks notably weak; the Russell 2000 small-caps also fell -1.08%, while the S&P 500 was nearly flat. This divergence in traditional markets could also serve as a reference coordinate for crypto's subsequent moves.

For now, BTC has reclaimed $61k and ETH held $1,700. The short squeeze has brought a strong start; but before ETF funds return, coupled with the lingering uncertainty from the FOMC, whether a true reversal can emerge remains to be seen.