BTC/ETH Morning Outlook｜2026.07.03 07:50

Yesterday's Review: Yesterday, the key battleground for BTC was 60600~60800. If held, it would continue to test near 62000; if it fell back below 60600, the short-term recovery would cool down. In the past 24 hours, BTC's low was about 59529. It broke below the battleground during the session but then pulled back to near 61500, with the highest reaching 62137. This was a "cool-down first, recovery later" scenario, with the conclusion partially fulfilled. Yesterday, the key battleground for ETH was 1620~1630. If it held, it would test near 1668; in the past 24 hours, ETH's low was about 1596, then it surged to 1723, reclaiming the daily middle Bollinger Band. The recovery was stronger than BTC's, and the conclusion was fulfilled. For altcoins, the emphasis yesterday was that BTC needs to hold support and ETH needs to strengthen for there to be recovery room. Today, with ETH driving resilience recovery, the altcoin rhythm is partially fulfilled.

Today's Overall Judgment: Both BTC and ETH are showing a bullish recovery trend but have entered a short-term resistance zone. BTC is currently around 61500, with a 24-hour gain of about 2.56%, in the range of 59529~62137. ETH is around 1698, with a 24-hour gain of about 5.61%, in the range of 1596~1723. ETH is clearly stronger than BTC, risk appetite has recovered, and altcoins can be observed with an offensive stance today. However, BTC has not yet effectively held above the daily 20-day moving average around 62360, so it cannot be directly viewed as a trend reversal.

BTC: On the 1-hour chart, the price is around 61500, above MA20 (~61209) and MA60 (~59863), but close to the upper Bollinger Band at 62254. The MACD red bar has expanded from the previous value of about -50 to -58, indicating slowing short-term momentum. The 4-hour chart is close to the upper Bollinger Band at 61949, with MA20 around 59862 and MA60 around 60419. The rebound structure remains, but near the upper band is not suitable for chasing. The daily chart is above MA5 (~59928), close to the daily middle band and MA20 (~62360). Weekly and monthly charts are still below the medium-term moving averages, indicating a recovery phase. Short-term support is at 61200~61300, with strong support at 60040~60160; short-term resistance is at 62100~62250, with strong resistance at 62360~62800. Today's key battleground is 61200~61300. If held, it can still test above 62360; if it falls back below 61200, treat it as a cooling oscillation.

ETH: On the 1-hour chart, the price is around 1698, slightly below MA5 (~1699) but clearly above MA20 (~1670) and MA60 (~1616). The upper Bollinger Band is at 1738, and short-term strength remains. The 4-hour chart is close to the upper Bollinger Band at 1698, with the MACD red bar continuing to expand slightly, showing a stronger structure than BTC. The daily chart has reclaimed the middle band and MA20 (~1669), with volume above the 20-day moving average, indicating better recovery quality. Weekly and monthly charts are still below the large-level moving averages, so it can only be seen as a phase rebound. Short-term support is at 1685~1690, with strong support at 1665~1670; short-term resistance is at 1720~1738, with strong resistance at 1819~1848. Today's key battleground is 1665~1670. If held, altcoin elasticity remains; if it falls back below 1665, the ETH-driven recovery will cool down.

Today's Altcoin Linkage Judgment: Altcoins should be observed with an offensive stance today, but the pace depends on whether BTC and ETH continue to resonate. When BTC holds 61200~61300 and ETH holds 1665~1670, small-cap coins have room for rotational recovery. If ETH continues to be stronger than BTC, funds are more likely to seek elastic directions. Conversely, if BTC surges to around 62360 and then falls back with low volume, or if ETH falls back below 1665, altcoins may shift from catch-up gains to a high-to-low decline. Today is not a day for full-on chasing; decisions should be made after seeing the market's battlegrounds.

Public Version Operating Principles: Do not chase highs. First, wait for key support to be confirmed. Only when BTC firmly holds above 62360 and ETH firmly holds above 1738 can recovery expansion be considered. If they fall below their respective battlegrounds, prioritize reducing altcoin positions for defense. The public version only provides market direction, key levels, and linkage judgment. For the full observation pool levels and individual coin strategies, refer to the subscription bulletin or group documents.

Risk Warning: The above content is only market speculation and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile; pay attention to position sizing and stop losses.