🪨 **#Gold Morning Report 7/3 Friday**

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## Core Data

| Indicator | Latest | Change |
|------|------|------|
| XAU/USD | **$4,130** (Intraday High $4,137) | +2.5% |
| AU9999 | **¥900/gram** (Delayed Quote, Previous Close 887) | +1.5% |
| AU(T+D) | ¥898/gram (High 904.79) | — |
| Brand Gold Jewelry | ¥1,222-1,236/gram | +22-27 CNY |
| Shuibei Fine Gold 999 | ¥1,057/gram | — |
| Fine Gold Recycling | ¥874-875/gram | — |
| Bank Gold Bars | ¥900-938/gram | — |
| US Dollar Index | **Below 101** | Down nearly 1% in a single day |

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## Major Events Overnight (All Settled)

**① NFP Surprise — 57K (Expected 115K), Less Than Half of Expectations**
- April Revised from 179K to 148K, May from 172K to 129K, **Total Downward Revision of 74K**
- Unemployment Rate 4.3%→4.2%, but Labor Force Participation Rate Fell to 61.5% (Unemployed Workers Exiting Market)
- Leisure and Hospitality Lost 61K Jobs, World Cup Boost Effect Disproved
- Hourly Wages YoY +3.5%, Wages Still Sticky

**② Waller Turns Dovish — "Inflation Risks Have Diminished"**
- July Rate Hike Probability from 28% → **Below 20%**
- September Rate Hike Probability from 49.8% → **43.6%**
- Market's First Rate Hike Timing Postponed to December

**③ USD Plunges + Gold Surges**
- US Dollar Index Breaks Below 101, Low 100.58 (Two-Week Low)
- Gold Surged Over $100 from $4,030 in Half an Hour, Breaking $4,100 → $4,137
- A-Share Gold Stocks Limit Up Surge: Zhaojin Gold, Chifeng Gold, Shanjin International

**④ WGC Mid-Year Report Three Scenarios**
- Base Case: $4,100±5% ($3,895-4,305)
- Bull Case: $4,500 → Extremely Strong Signal $5,000
- Bear Case: Sustained Below $4,000 Triggers Selloff
- Goldman Sachs Target $4,900 | UBS Target $5,200

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## Technicals

**Resistance:** $4,137 (Yesterday's High) → $4,150 → $4,200-4,250 (Top of WGC Range)
**Support:** $4,100 (Breakout Turned Support) → $4,080 → $4,030-4,050 → $4,000

AU9999 Delayed Quote Hit **¥904**, a jump of ¥13 from the 7/2 close of 887.

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## Strategy Judgment

**Qualitative: Oversold Bounce Enters Acceleration Phase, NFP + Waller Dual Drivers Confirm Short-Term Bottom**

NFP 57K + Prior Revisions Downward 74K Completely Extinguish Rate Hike Expectations. USD Index Below 101 Is the Core Support for Gold's Rebound.

But Be Aware:
- Hourly Wages +3.5% Not Declining, Inflation Still Sticky
- From $3,942 (7/1 Low) to $4,137, Already Up $195 (+4.9%), Short-Term Profit-Taking Pressure Exists
- Friday + First Day After NFP, Market May Digest Sentiment Then Pullback to Confirm

**Short-Term: $4,100-4,150 Consolidation, Retest $4,100 to Confirm Support Then Target $4,200**
**Medium-Term: WGC Base Case $4,100±5% Range, After NFP Confirms Bottom, Move Toward Top $4,305**

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## Key Time Points

- **Today (Friday 7/3)**: Digest NFP, Watch Whether $4,100 Support Holds
- **7/14 (Monday)**: June CPI Data — If Inflation Also Falls → Confirm End of Rate Hike Cycle → Gold Breaks $4,150
- **Mid-July**: Fed Officials' Speaking Marathon
- **8/7**: Next NFP
- **8/28**: Annual Benchmark Revision — Could Significantly Revise Nearly a Year of Data