Non-farm payrolls added only 57k jobs, significantly below market expectations, leading the market to lower the probability of further rate hikes by the Fed in July. Affected by this, the US Dollar Index briefly fell, market risk appetite recovered, and BTC experienced a technical rebound.

However, from a medium-term perspective, the pressure on BTC has not been significantly alleviated. On one hand, U.S. spot BTC ETFs continued to see net outflows at the end of June, with cumulative net outflows of approximately $4.0-4.5 billion in June, making it one of the worst months since the ETF launch; on July 1, there was another net outflow of approximately $296 million, of which IBIT had a net outflow of approximately $219 million, indicating that institutional funds are still withdrawing. On the other hand, the euro remains weak, the yen continues to depreciate, and although the US Dollar Index briefly fell due to the non-farm data, it still has strong support overall.

If ETF fund flows still do not improve in the future, and the US Dollar Index regains its footing and breaks above 102, then this round of BTC rebound may be more of a technical correction than a trend reversal, and the probability of continued decline in the coming period remains high.