Tonight's US June non-farm payroll data fell well short of expectations, but the market reaction was somewhat complex—it both eased the urgency for the Fed to hike rates immediately in July, yet did not fully dispel market concerns about a rate hike within the year.

Breaking it down:

· 📉 Data "cold snap": June added only 57k new jobs, far below the expected 113k and the previous month's figure. However, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% (expected 4.3%), but this was because the labor force participation rate dropped sharply, with many people exiting the labor force—not a genuine improvement in employment.
· 📈 Market reaction "rose first, then stabilized": With reduced urgency for rate hikes, U.S. stock futures spiked briefly, gold surged over 2.6% straight, and the dollar plunged. Yet the market did not fully abandon rate hike expectations; it merely postponed the anticipated timing from October to December, indicating that everyone is still waiting for subsequent inflation data.
· 🔗 This runs counter to the logic behind today's tech stock sell-off. Previously, the market feared that Fed rate hikes would suppress valuations; now the weak data temporarily alleviates those external liquidity tightening concerns. Considering that A-shares just plunged today due to the collapse of the tech rally, the easing of external pressure may provide some breathing room for tomorrow's market sentiment.

However, the real "big test" for the market is still ahead—the U.S. June CPI data due on July 14 (next Tuesday) will be key to determining the Fed's next move. $BTC ‌$ETH ‌