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In fact, market intuition does exist, much like how some large models recognize patterns in image structures and can predict what the next frame is likely to look like…
When a trader sees a chart, their brain also calls upon a pre-trained recognition model to predict potential trends.
However, the problem is that images generated by AI predictions have no absolute right or wrong in detail—as long as they are semantically consistent—but traders are different…
If you only predict the next frame of the image (the next candlestick), the result is likely completely random, but if you predict a long-term narrative or logical deduction, the accuracy will be much higher.
This is why few people can consistently succeed in micro ultra-short-term trading using market intuition, while traders who use market intuition for higher timeframes can achieve long-term stable profits.
The more micro the world, the more random it becomes; the more macro the subject, the easier it is to predict.
Physics and market behavior have always been intricately connected, and now I understand why my friend who studied theoretical physics eventually chose to go into finance…