My guess is that the Federal Reserve can probably predict the impact of the World Cup on employment numbers. Warsh's first speech being relatively "hawkish" was just to demonstrate his independence, and afterward he can easily turn "dovish" to cooperate with Trump's midterm elections.


Lower oil prices and nonfarm payrolls have cooled expectations for rate hikes. Funds will flow out of the AI sector, which can buck macro trends, and will gradually return to BTC, gold, and other assets. If Warsh indeed turns dovish in the future, I suspect it's just a closed-door deal with Trump, and it won't affect Warsh's determination to continue strengthening the dollar after the midterm elections...
Without the pressure of rate hikes, funds from overcrowded positions will flow out temporarily, putting pressure on AI stock prices, but overall it's positive. It will give cloud vendors, which are big spenders, some breathing room. When they are relaxed, the subsequent earnings reports for chips, storage, optics, PCBs, etc., will look better.
Earnings reports are the hope of the whole village.
BTC-0.92%
GLDX-0.90%
PAXG-0.96%
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